Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Caleb Desnoyers★ | F | LHJMQ | 19.4 | UTA | 25′ #4 | 1.73 | 39.8 | 90% | 0.7y @20.1 | 427095 | 62.5 |
| 466 | Gabe Smith | F | LHJMQ | 20 | UTA* | 24′ #103 | 1.28 | 29.5 | 40% | 3.6y @23.6 | 0049 | 18.6 |
| 910 | Florent Houle | F | LHJMQ | 19 | UTA* | 26′ #147 | 0.79 | 18.1 | 20% | 4.1y @23.1 | 0046 | 10.7 |
| 956 | Tomas Lavoie | D | LHJMQ | 20.4 | UTA* | 24′ #89 | 0.85 | 19.5 | 25% | 2.4y @22.8 | 0038 | 10.2 |
Who each prospect looks like
3. Caleb Desnoyers90% NHL · 0.7y
| Barrett Hayton 18′#5 | 46 pk | 358 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
| Bo Horvat 13′#9 | 90 pk | 881 GP |
| Leon Draisaitl 14′#3 | 131 pk | 855 GP |
| William Nylander 14′#8 | 100 pk | 750 GP |
466. Gabe Smith40% NHL · 3.6y
| Noah Gregor 16′#111 | 30 pk | 330 GP |
| Michael Eyssimont 16′#142 | 33 pk | 269 GP |
| Michael Bunting 14′#117 | 74 pk | 418 GP |
| Drake Rymsha 17′#138 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Ivan Lodnia 17′#85 | never stuck | 0 GP |
910. Florent Houle20% NHL · 4.1y
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Jonne Tammela 15′#118 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominik Kubalik 13′#191 | 56 pk | 357 GP |
| John McCarron 12′#153 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brian Pinho 13′#174 | never stuck | 2 GP |
956. Tomas Lavoie25% NHL · 2.4y
| David Farrance 17′#92 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Mikey Anderson 17′#103 | 26 pk | 425 GP |
| Louie Belpedio 14′#80 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Brandon Montour 14′#55 | 75 pk | 665 GP |
| Cole Hults 17′#134 | never stuck | 0 GP |