Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 225 | Daniil But | F | AHLPRO | 21.5 | UTA | 23′ #12 | 0.95 | 34.3 | 57% | 1.6y @23.1 | 42762 | 25.6 |
| 465 | Dmitri Simashev | D | AHLPRO | 21.5 | UTA | — | 0.88 | 31.6 | 47% | 2.4y @23.9 | 01352 | 18.6 |
| 1014 | Maveric Lamoureux | D | AHLPRO | 22.6 | UTA | 22′ #29 | 0.31 | 11.1 | 23% | 0.9y @23.5 | 0027 | 9.2 |
| 1346 | Owen Allard | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | UTA* | 24′ #135 | 0.28 | 9.9 | 12% | 1.3y @23.9 | 0022 | 6 |
Who each prospect looks like
225. Daniil But57% NHL · 1.6y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Mitchell Stephens 15′#33 | 18 pk | 123 GP |
| Tyler Benson 16′#32 | never stuck | 38 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
| Tanner Pearson 12′#30 | 53 pk | 778 GP |
465. Dmitri Simashev47% NHL · 2.4y
| Sebastian Aho 17′#139 | 27 pk | 190 GP |
| Christian Djoos 12′#195 | 25 pk | 155 GP |
| Sami Niku 15′#198 | never stuck | 67 GP |
| Colin Miller 12′#151 | 41 pk | 590 GP |
| Markus Nutivaara 15′#189 | 31 pk | 275 GP |
1014. Maveric Lamoureux23% NHL · 0.9y
| Jeremy Roy 15′#31 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jared McIsaac 18′#36 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Madison Bowey 13′#53 | 26 pk | 158 GP |
| Lucas Johansen 16′#28 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25 | never stuck | 42 GP |
1346. Owen Allard12% NHL · 1.3y
| Conner Bleackley 16′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Igor Shvyrev 17′#125 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brad Morrison 15′#113 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jonathan Gruden 18′#95 | never stuck | 16 GP |