Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
242	Tinus Luc Koblar	F	SHLPRO	19.1	TOR*	25′ #64	0.3	14.4	53%	3y @22.1	01961	24.8
345	Nicholas Moldenhauer	F	NCAAPRO	22.2	TOR*	22′ #95	0.78	26.1	47%	1.5y @23.7	02448	21.6
694	Yaroslav Fedoseyev	D	VHLPRO	18.8	TOR*	26′ #161	0.24	5.9	42%	3.7y @22.5	01129	13.7
714	Victor Johansson	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	20.3	TOR*	24′ #120	0.45	14.2	38%	2y @22.3	01129	13.3
743	Brandon Lisowsky	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	TOR*	22′ #218	0.48	16.3	23%	0.8y @23.2	0048	12.9
879	Hudson Malinoski	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	TOR*	23′ #153	0.42	14	23%	1.4y @23.7	0031	11
1025	Noah Chadwick	D	AHLPRO	21.3	TOR*	23′ #185	0.34	12.2	28%	2.7y @24	0026	9.1
1113	Luke Haymes	F	AHLPRO	23.1	TOR	—	0.5	18	15%	2.4y @25.5	0033	8.2

Who each prospect looks like

242. Tinus Luc Koblar53% NHL · 3y

Gabriel Fortier 18′#59	never stuck	11 GP
Brock McGinn 12′#47	31 pk	534 GP
Marko Dano 13′#27	49 pk	141 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP

345. Nicholas Moldenhauer47% NHL · 1.5y

Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76	never stuck	1 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP

694. Yaroslav Fedoseyev42% NHL · 3.7y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP

714. Victor Johansson38% NHL · 2y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

743. Brandon Lisowsky23% NHL · 0.8y

Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Yegor Sharangovich 18′#141	59 pk	438 GP

879. Hudson Malinoski23% NHL · 1.4y

Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Roy Radke 15′#164	never stuck	0 GP
Gemel Smith 12′#104	never stuck	91 GP

1025. Noah Chadwick28% NHL · 2.7y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

1113. Luke Haymes15% NHL · 2.4y

Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Semyon Kizimov 18′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP