Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
1	Gavin McKenna★	F	NCAA	18.7	TOR	26′ #1	1.46	49	100%	0.9y @19.6	5380113	77.8
219	Alexander Bilecki	F	OHL	18.3	TOR*	26′ #60	0.44	10.8	47%	3.7y @22	0383	25.8
220	Zach Olsen	F	WHL	18.4	TOR*	26′ #73	0.6	14.7	47%	3.6y @22	0383	25.8
340	Cooper Williams	F	WHL	18.5	TOR*	26′ #158	0.86	21.2	47%	3.9y @22.4	01952	21.8
385	Brody Pepoy	F	OHL	18.3	TOR*	26′ #169	0.43	10.6	40%	3.9y @22.2	0056	20.4
467	Ethan MacKenzie	F	WHL	20	TOR*	26′ #69	0.98	24.2	40%	3.2y @23.2	01846	18.5
760	Harry Nansi	F	OHL	18.9	TOR*	25′ #153	0.84	20.6	25%	4.2y @23.1	0044	12.7
952	Ben Danford	D	OHL	20.5	TOR*	24′ #31	0.45	11.1	33%	3.4y @23.9	0032	10.2
1219	Rylan Fellinger	D	OHL	19.3	TOR*	25′ #185	0.25	6.1	20%	3.5y @22.8	0029	7
1234	Miroslav Holinka	F	WHL	20.8	TOR*	24′ #151	1.36	33.4	15%	2.6y @23.4	0034	6.9
1422	Tyler Hopkins	F	OHL	19.6	TOR*	25′ #86	0.88	21.7	15%	3.5y @23.1	0020	5.3
1502	William Belle	F	NCAA	19.6	TOR*	25′ #137	0.12	4	12%	6.3y @25.9	0027	4.7
1661	Sam McCue	F	OHL	20.9	TOR*	24′ #216	0.63	15.5	12%	3y @23.9	0020	3.7
1842	Matthew Hlacar	F	OHL	20.2	TOR*	25′ #217	0.24	5.8	5%	4.7y @24.9	009	2.6
2005	Alexander Plesovskikh	F	MHL	20.1	TOR*	24′ #152	0.96	14.2	0%	—	000	1.1
2016	Nathan Mayes	D	WHL	20.2	TOR*	24′ #225	0.25	6.2	0%	—	000	0.9

Who each prospect looks like

1. Gavin McKenna100% NHL · 0.9y

Sam Reinhart 14′#2	94 pk	839 GP
Nail Yakupov 12′#1	53 pk	350 GP
Connor McDavid 15′#1	154 pk	794 GP
Leon Draisaitl 14′#3	131 pk	855 GP
Nico Hischier 17′#1	81 pk	609 GP

219. Alexander Bilecki47% NHL · 3.7y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Tyler Moy 15′#175	never stuck	0 GP

220. Zach Olsen47% NHL · 3.6y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

340. Cooper Williams47% NHL · 3.9y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Ostap Safin 17′#115	never stuck	0 GP

385. Brody Pepoy40% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Quentin Shore 13′#168	never stuck	0 GP

467. Ethan MacKenzie40% NHL · 3.2y

Ivan Lodnia 17′#85	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Gignac 16′#80	never stuck	8 GP
Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson 15′#45	never stuck	29 GP
Tyler Madden 18′#68	never stuck	0 GP
William Bitten 16′#70	never stuck	4 GP

760. Harry Nansi25% NHL · 4.2y

Jesper Bratt 16′#162	89 pk	634 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Frederik Tiffels 15′#167	never stuck	0 GP

952. Ben Danford33% NHL · 3.4y

Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Andersson 18′#57	never stuck	0 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Dominik Masin 14′#35	never stuck	0 GP

1219. Rylan Fellinger20% NHL · 3.5y

Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Dmitriy Zaitsev 16′#207	never stuck	0 GP

1234. Miroslav Holinka15% NHL · 2.6y

Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP
Noah Cates 17′#137	47 pk	317 GP
Nikita Korostelev 15′#185	never stuck	0 GP
Evan Barratt 17′#90	never stuck	0 GP
Giorgio Estephan 15′#152	never stuck	0 GP

1422. Tyler Hopkins15% NHL · 3.5y

Jonathan Ang 16′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Tanner Kaspick 16′#119	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Bradley 15′#131	never stuck	0 GP

1502. William Belle12% NHL · 6.3y

Nick Pastujov 16′#193	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Lindstrom 16′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Jacob Jackson 13′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Semyon Kizimov 18′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP