Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
220	Zach Olsen	F	WHL	18.4	TOR*	26′ #73	0.6	14.7	47%	3.6y @22	0383	25.8
340	Cooper Williams	F	WHL	18.5	TOR*	26′ #158	0.86	21.2	47%	3.9y @22.4	01952	21.8
467	Ethan MacKenzie	F	WHL	20	TOR*	26′ #69	0.98	24.2	40%	3.2y @23.2	01846	18.5
1234	Miroslav Holinka	F	WHL	20.8	TOR*	24′ #151	1.36	33.4	15%	2.6y @23.4	0034	6.9
2016	Nathan Mayes	D	WHL	20.2	TOR*	24′ #225	0.25	6.2	0%	—	000	0.9

Who each prospect looks like

220. Zach Olsen47% NHL · 3.6y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

340. Cooper Williams47% NHL · 3.9y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Ostap Safin 17′#115	never stuck	0 GP

467. Ethan MacKenzie40% NHL · 3.2y

Ivan Lodnia 17′#85	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Gignac 16′#80	never stuck	8 GP
Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson 15′#45	never stuck	29 GP
Tyler Madden 18′#68	never stuck	0 GP
William Bitten 16′#70	never stuck	4 GP

1234. Miroslav Holinka15% NHL · 2.6y

Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP
Noah Cates 17′#137	47 pk	317 GP
Nikita Korostelev 15′#185	never stuck	0 GP
Evan Barratt 17′#90	never stuck	0 GP
Giorgio Estephan 15′#152	never stuck	0 GP

2016. Nathan Mayes0% NHL · —

Jacob Friend 16′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Kannok-Leipert 18′#161	never stuck	0 GP
Jocktan Chainey 17′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Dustyn McFaul 18′#181	never stuck	0 GP
Emil Johansson 14′#206	never stuck	0 GP