Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin McKenna★ | F | NCAA | 18.7 | TOR | 26′ #1 | 1.46 | 49 | 100% | 0.9y @19.6 | 5380113 | 77.8 |
| 345 | Nicholas Moldenhauer | F | NCAAPRO | 22.2 | TOR* | 22′ #95 | 0.78 | 26.1 | 47% | 1.5y @23.7 | 02448 | 21.6 |
| 743 | Brandon Lisowsky | F | NCAAPRO | 22.4 | TOR* | 22′ #218 | 0.48 | 16.3 | 23% | 0.8y @23.2 | 0048 | 12.9 |
| 879 | Hudson Malinoski | F | NCAAPRO | 22.3 | TOR* | 23′ #153 | 0.42 | 14 | 23% | 1.4y @23.7 | 0031 | 11 |
| 1502 | William Belle | F | NCAA | 19.6 | TOR* | 25′ #137 | 0.12 | 4 | 12% | 6.3y @25.9 | 0027 | 4.7 |
Who each prospect looks like
1. Gavin McKenna100% NHL · 0.9y
| Sam Reinhart 14′#2 | 94 pk | 839 GP |
| Nail Yakupov 12′#1 | 53 pk | 350 GP |
| Connor McDavid 15′#1 | 154 pk | 794 GP |
| Leon Draisaitl 14′#3 | 131 pk | 855 GP |
| Nico Hischier 17′#1 | 81 pk | 609 GP |
345. Nicholas Moldenhauer47% NHL · 1.5y
| Connor Dewar 18′#92 | 32 pk | 316 GP |
| Garrett Pilon 16′#87 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Aleksi Saarela 15′#89 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 18′#76 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
743. Brandon Lisowsky23% NHL · 0.8y
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Joel Vermin 13′#186 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cameron Hughes 15′#165 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Yegor Sharangovich 18′#141 | 59 pk | 438 GP |
879. Hudson Malinoski23% NHL · 1.4y
| Marián Studenic 17′#143 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Cole Ully 13′#131 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brad Morrison 15′#113 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Roy Radke 15′#164 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Gemel Smith 12′#104 | never stuck | 91 GP |
1502. William Belle12% NHL · 6.3y
| Nick Pastujov 16′#193 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Linus Lindstrom 16′#96 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jacob Jackson 13′#201 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Semyon Kizimov 18′#211 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Maxim Mamin 16′#175 | never stuck | 73 GP |