Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
140	Yaroslav Fedoseyev	D	VHLPRO	18.8	TOR*	26′ #161	0.24	5.9	42%	3.7y @22.5	01129	13.7
146	Victor Johansson	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	20.3	TOR*	24′ #120	0.45	14.2	38%	2y @22.3	01129	13.3
252	Ben Danford	D	OHL	20.5	TOR*	24′ #31	0.45	11.1	33%	3.4y @23.9	0032	10.2
291	Noah Chadwick	D	AHLPRO	21.3	TOR*	23′ #185	0.34	12.2	28%	2.7y @24	0026	9.1
374	Rylan Fellinger	D	OHL	19.3	TOR*	25′ #185	0.25	6.1	20%	3.5y @22.8	0029	7
631	Nathan Mayes	D	WHL	20.2	TOR*	24′ #225	0.25	6.2	0%	—	000	0.9

Who each prospect looks like

140. Yaroslav Fedoseyev42% NHL · 3.7y

Jacob Cederholm 16′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP

146. Victor Johansson38% NHL · 2y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Gustav Forsling 14′#126	43 pk	557 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

252. Ben Danford33% NHL · 3.4y

Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Andersson 18′#57	never stuck	0 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Dominik Masin 14′#35	never stuck	0 GP

291. Noah Chadwick28% NHL · 2.7y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

374. Rylan Fellinger20% NHL · 3.5y

Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Dmitriy Zaitsev 16′#207	never stuck	0 GP

631. Nathan Mayes0% NHL · —

Jacob Friend 16′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Kannok-Leipert 18′#161	never stuck	0 GP
Jocktan Chainey 17′#191	never stuck	0 GP
Dustyn McFaul 18′#181	never stuck	0 GP
Emil Johansson 14′#206	never stuck	0 GP