Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
42	Benjamin Rautiainen	F	LIIGAPRO	21.2	TBL	25′ #108	1.31	57.8	65%	2y @23.2	213369	34.4
151	Conor Geekie	F	AHLPRO	22.3	TBL	22′ #11	1.04	37.3	60%	0.8y @23.1	02964	28.1
188	Jayson Shaugabay	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	23′ #115	1.07	36.1	60%	1.6y @23	73149	26.9
248	Ethan Gauthier	F	AHLPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #37	0.48	17.4	60%	1.3y @22.9	02555	24.6
267	Joona Saarelainen	F	LIIGAPRO	20.4	TBL*	24′ #149	0.47	20.8	50%	2.5y @22.9	02555	24.1
285	Isaac Howard	F	AHLPRO	22.4	TBL*	22′ #31	1.06	38.4	47%	0.7y @23.1	02353	23.1
293	Joe Connor	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	24′ #195	0.75	25.2	47%	1.6y @23	02455	22.9
405	Noah Steen	F	SHLPRO	22	TBL*	24′ #199	0.42	20.5	35%	1.1y @23.1	01255	20
459	Morgan Anderberg	F	SHLPRO	18.8	TBL*	26′ #134	0.08	3.7	40%	3.7y @22.5	01158	18.8
604	Ethan Hay	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #211	0.46	15.4	28%	1.2y @22.8	0055	15.4
688	Tomas Kralovic	D	SLOVAKIAPRO	21	TBL*	26′ #90	0.6	17.1	40%	1.5y @22.5	01131	13.8
1071	Warren Clark	D	NCAAPRO	22	TBL*	23′ #179	0.18	6.1	28%	3.5y @25.5	0026	8.7
1250	Dylan Duke	F	AHLPRO	23.5	TBL*	21′ #126	0.82	29.6	12%	1.9y @25.4	0036	6.8
1259	Klavs Veinbergs	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	TBL*	22′ #224	0.64	21.5	15%	3.2y @26.6	0031	6.8
1438	Jack Harvey	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	TBL*	23′ #193	0.58	19.6	12%	3.4y @26.8	0021	5.2
1729	Roman Schmidt	D	AHLPRO	23.5	TBL*	21′ #96	0.05	1.9	7%	2.5y @26	0011	3.4
1808	Cameron Macdonald	F	NCAAPRO	23.3	TBL*	21′ #160	0.42	14.3	10%	2.5y @25.8	000	2.9
1857	Alex Gagne	D	AHLPRO	24	TBL*	21′ #192	0.22	8.1	7%	2.5y @26.5	0010	2.5
1915	Cooper Flinton	F	AHLPRO	23	TBL*	21′ #211	0.12	4.3	5%	4.3y @27.3	000	1.9

Who each prospect looks like

42. Benjamin Rautiainen65% NHL · 2y

Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Kirill Kaprizov 15′#135	112 pk	397 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP

151. Conor Geekie60% NHL · 0.8y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP

188. Jayson Shaugabay60% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

248. Ethan Gauthier60% NHL · 1.3y

Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Phillip Di Giuseppe 12′#38	34 pk	302 GP
Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
William Carrier 13′#57	37 pk	526 GP

267. Joona Saarelainen50% NHL · 2.5y

Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Mathieu Joseph 15′#120	40 pk	471 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP

285. Isaac Howard47% NHL · 0.7y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP

293. Joe Connor47% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

405. Noah Steen35% NHL · 1.1y

Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP

459. Morgan Anderberg40% NHL · 3.7y

Brandon Gignac 16′#80	never stuck	8 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Gabriel Fortier 18′#59	never stuck	11 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP

604. Ethan Hay28% NHL · 1.2y

Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Oskar Steen 16′#165	never stuck	60 GP

688. Tomas Kralovic40% NHL · 1.5y

Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP

1071. Warren Clark28% NHL · 3.5y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP