Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 753 | Ethan Czata | F | OHL | 19.2 | TBL* | 25′ #56 | 0.84 | 20.7 | 30% | 3.7y @22.9 | 0046 | 12.8 |
| 1041 | Grant Spada | D | OHL | 19.2 | TBL* | 25′ #212 | 0.34 | 8.5 | 23% | 4.4y @23.6 | 0029 | 8.9 |
| 1824 | Marco Mignosa | F | OHL | 21.4 | TBL* | 25′ #215 | 1.37 | 33.7 | 5% | 0.6y @22 | 000 | 2.8 |
| 1920 | Kaden Pitre | F | OHL | 20.5 | TBL* | 24′ #181 | 0.84 | 20.6 | 5% | 2.9y @23.4 | 008 | 1.9 |
Who each prospect looks like
753. Ethan Czata30% NHL · 3.7y
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
| Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43 | 41 pk | 119 GP |
| Alexandre Texier 17′#45 | 46 pk | 283 GP |
| Mike Winther 12′#54 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominic Toninato 12′#126 | 20 pk | 197 GP |
1041. Grant Spada23% NHL · 4.4y
| Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jeff Taylor 14′#203 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matt Benning 12′#175 | 26 pk | 465 GP |
| John Gilmour 13′#198 | never stuck | 37 GP |
| Ville Rasanen 17′#197 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1824. Marco Mignosa5% NHL · 0.6y
| Tyler Soy 16′#205 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Giorgio Estephan 15′#152 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nikita Korostelev 15′#185 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Noah Cates 17′#137 | 47 pk | 317 GP |
| Evan Barratt 17′#90 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1920. Kaden Pitre5% NHL · 2.9y
| Jakob Stukel 16′#154 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Pezzetta 16′#160 | 20 pk | 209 GP |
| Ryan Olsen 12′#160 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Blaine Byron 13′#179 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| CJ Suess 14′#129 | never stuck | 5 GP |