Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
188	Jayson Shaugabay	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	23′ #115	1.07	36.1	60%	1.6y @23	73149	26.9
293	Joe Connor	F	NCAAPRO	21.4	TBL*	24′ #195	0.75	25.2	47%	1.6y @23	02455	22.9
604	Ethan Hay	F	NCAAPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #211	0.46	15.4	28%	1.2y @22.8	0055	15.4
1071	Warren Clark	D	NCAAPRO	22	TBL*	23′ #179	0.18	6.1	28%	3.5y @25.5	0026	8.7
1259	Klavs Veinbergs	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	TBL*	22′ #224	0.64	21.5	15%	3.2y @26.6	0031	6.8
1401	Hagen Burrows	F	NCAA	20.9	TBL*	24′ #128	0.37	12.5	12%	3.9y @24.8	0021	5.5
1438	Jack Harvey	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	TBL*	23′ #193	0.58	19.6	12%	3.4y @26.8	0021	5.2
1808	Cameron Macdonald	F	NCAAPRO	23.3	TBL*	21′ #160	0.42	14.3	10%	2.5y @25.8	000	2.9

Who each prospect looks like

188. Jayson Shaugabay60% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

293. Joe Connor47% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

604. Ethan Hay28% NHL · 1.2y

Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Oskar Steen 16′#165	never stuck	60 GP

1071. Warren Clark28% NHL · 3.5y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP

1259. Klavs Veinbergs15% NHL · 3.2y

Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP
Semyon Kizimov 18′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Emil Pettersson 13′#155	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Evans 14′#207	36 pk	418 GP

1401. Hagen Burrows12% NHL · 3.9y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Max Willman 14′#121	never stuck	68 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Anton Zlobin 12′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

1438. Jack Harvey12% NHL · 3.4y

Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Artur Gavrus 12′#180	never stuck	0 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP
Eetu Pakkila 18′#203	never stuck	0 GP

1808. Cameron Macdonald10% NHL · 2.5y

Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Spacek 15′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Branden Troock 12′#134	never stuck	0 GP
Samuel Houde 18′#133	never stuck	0 GP