Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
151	Conor Geekie	F	AHLPRO	22.3	TBL	22′ #11	1.04	37.3	60%	0.8y @23.1	02964	28.1
248	Ethan Gauthier	F	AHLPRO	21.6	TBL*	23′ #37	0.48	17.4	60%	1.3y @22.9	02555	24.6
285	Isaac Howard	F	AHLPRO	22.4	TBL*	22′ #31	1.06	38.4	47%	0.7y @23.1	02353	23.1
1250	Dylan Duke	F	AHLPRO	23.5	TBL*	21′ #126	0.82	29.6	12%	1.9y @25.4	0036	6.8
1729	Roman Schmidt	D	AHLPRO	23.5	TBL*	21′ #96	0.05	1.9	7%	2.5y @26	0011	3.4
1857	Alex Gagne	D	AHLPRO	24	TBL*	21′ #192	0.22	8.1	7%	2.5y @26.5	0010	2.5
1915	Cooper Flinton	F	AHLPRO	23	TBL*	21′ #211	0.12	4.3	5%	4.3y @27.3	000	1.9

Who each prospect looks like

151. Conor Geekie60% NHL · 0.8y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP

248. Ethan Gauthier60% NHL · 1.3y

Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Phillip Di Giuseppe 12′#38	34 pk	302 GP
Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP
William Carrier 13′#57	37 pk	526 GP

285. Isaac Howard47% NHL · 0.7y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP

1250. Dylan Duke12% NHL · 1.9y

Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Parker Foo 17′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Otto Somppi 16′#206	never stuck	0 GP
Glenn Gawdin 15′#116	never stuck	13 GP
Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP

1729. Roman Schmidt7% NHL · 2.5y

Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Hansson 13′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Arnesson 13′#60	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Devante Stephens 15′#122	never stuck	0 GP

1857. Alex Gagne7% NHL · 2.5y

Gustav Bouramman 15′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Hellickson 17′#214	never stuck	0 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Peter Diliberatore 18′#180	never stuck	0 GP
Simon Johansson 18′#148	never stuck	0 GP

1915. Cooper Flinton5% NHL · 4.3y

Graham Black 12′#135	never stuck	0 GP
Edgars Kulda 14′#193	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Olsen 12′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Calvin Thurkauf 16′#185	never stuck	3 GP
Pavel Shen 18′#212	never stuck	0 GP