Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
136	Tomas Kralovic	D	SLOVAKIAPRO	21	TBL*	26′ #90	0.6	17.1	40%	1.5y @22.5	01131	13.8
303	Grant Spada	D	OHL	19.2	TBL*	25′ #212	0.34	8.5	23%	4.4y @23.6	0029	8.9
318	Warren Clark	D	NCAAPRO	22	TBL*	23′ #179	0.18	6.1	28%	3.5y @25.5	0026	8.7
352	Everett Baldwin	D	LHJMQ	19.6	TBL*	25′ #151	0.71	16.3	23%	3.7y @23.3	0026	7.7
394	Jan Golicic	D	LHJMQ	20.1	TBL*	24′ #118	0.69	15.8	23%	5.7y @25.8	0022	6.6
546	Roman Schmidt	D	AHLPRO	23.5	TBL*	21′ #96	0.05	1.9	7%	2.5y @26	0011	3.4
550	Max Vilen	D	LHJMQ	20.1	TBL*	26′ #218	0.51	11.6	7%	5.7y @25.8	0014	3.2
585	Alex Gagne	D	AHLPRO	24	TBL*	21′ #192	0.22	8.1	7%	2.5y @26.5	0010	2.5

Who each prospect looks like

136. Tomas Kralovic40% NHL · 1.5y

Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP

303. Grant Spada23% NHL · 4.4y

Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Jeff Taylor 14′#203	never stuck	0 GP
Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
John Gilmour 13′#198	never stuck	37 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP

318. Warren Clark28% NHL · 3.5y

Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Cederholm 13′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Press 13′#211	never stuck	0 GP

352. Everett Baldwin23% NHL · 3.7y

Zachary Leslie 13′#178	never stuck	0 GP
Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Brett Kulak 12′#105	25 pk	663 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Davies 16′#192	never stuck	23 GP

394. Jan Golicic23% NHL · 5.7y

Dysin Mayo 14′#133	never stuck	85 GP
Carl Neill 15′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Danila Zhuravlyov 18′#146	never stuck	0 GP
Cole Hults 17′#134	never stuck	0 GP

546. Roman Schmidt7% NHL · 2.5y

Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Niklas Hansson 13′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Arnesson 13′#60	never stuck	0 GP
Nico Gross 18′#101	never stuck	0 GP
Devante Stephens 15′#122	never stuck	0 GP

550. Max Vilen7% NHL · 5.7y

Alex Kannok-Leipert 18′#161	never stuck	0 GP
William Reilly 17′#217	never stuck	0 GP
Kyle Burroughs 13′#196	10 pk	201 GP
Jacob Friend 16′#202	never stuck	0 GP
Wyatt Kalynuk 17′#196	never stuck	26 GP

585. Alex Gagne7% NHL · 2.5y

Gustav Bouramman 15′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Hellickson 17′#214	never stuck	0 GP
Colby Williams 15′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Peter Diliberatore 18′#180	never stuck	0 GP
Simon Johansson 18′#148	never stuck	0 GP