Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
68	Matvei Korotky	F	KHLPRO	20.7	STL	24′ #211	0.63	39.6	68%	2.3y @23	213358	32.1
215	Otto Stenberg	F	AHLPRO	21.2	STL*	23′ #25	0.47	17	60%	1.3y @22.5	02561	26.2
270	Juraj Pekarcik	F	AHLPRO	20.9	STL*	23′ #76	0.51	18.3	50%	1.8y @22.7	02559	23.9
348	Mikhail Fyodorov	F	KHLPRO	19.7	STL*	25′ #147	0.25	15.8	42%	3.1y @22.8	01558	21.6
488	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki	F	AHLPRO	22.5	STL*	22′ #73	0.69	24.8	47%	1.1y @23.6	01638	18.1
506	Paul Fischer	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #138	0.7	23.4	45%	1.7y @23.3	01344	17.4
636	Theo Lindstein	D	AHLPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #29	0.24	8.6	50%	1.2y @22.8	01432	14.8
862	Arseni Koromyslov	D	KHLPRO	22.8	STL	22′ #120	0.28	17.6	35%	2y @24.8	0029	11.2
902	Jakub Stancl	F	AHLPRO	21.4	STL*	23′ #106	0.32	11.4	20%	1.5y @22.9	0028	10.7
903	Quinton Burns	D	AHLPRO	21.4	STL*	23′ #74	0.16	5.8	35%	1.4y @22.8	0029	10.7
1064	Nikita Susuyev	F	AHLPRO	21.5	STL*	23′ #202	0.21	7.4	15%	2y @23.5	0025	8.7
1130	Michael Buchinger	D	AHLPRO	22.3	STL*	22′ #88	0.19	6.8	23%	2.5y @24.8	0026	7.8
1447	Zach Dean	F	AHLPRO	23.6	STL	21′ #30	0.39	14	12%	0.9y @24.5	0023	5
1767	Tyson Galloway	D	NCAAPRO	23.6	STL*	21′ #145	0.24	8.1	10%	2.5y @26.1	0015	3.1
1997	Simon Robertsson	F	AHLPRO	23.5	STL*	21′ #71	0.17	6.3	5%	0.4y @23.9	000	1.1

Who each prospect looks like

68. Matvei Korotky68% NHL · 2.3y

Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

215. Otto Stenberg60% NHL · 1.3y

Nikita Scherbak 14′#26	never stuck	37 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP
Ivan Barbashev 14′#33	61 pk	667 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP

270. Juraj Pekarcik50% NHL · 1.8y

Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
MacKenzie Entwistle 17′#69	18 pk	193 GP
Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58	75 pk	567 GP

348. Mikhail Fyodorov42% NHL · 3.1y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP

488. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki47% NHL · 1.1y

Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP

506. Paul Fischer45% NHL · 1.7y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP

636. Theo Lindstein50% NHL · 1.2y

Matthew Finn 12′#35	never stuck	0 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP
Jonas Siegenthaler 15′#57	22 pk	449 GP

862. Arseni Koromyslov35% NHL · 2y

Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Jacob Bryson 17′#99	19 pk	304 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Jacob Moverare 16′#112	13 pk	109 GP

902. Jakub Stancl20% NHL · 1.5y

Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP

903. Quinton Burns35% NHL · 1.4y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP

1064. Nikita Susuyev15% NHL · 2y

Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Chase Lang 14′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP

1130. Michael Buchinger23% NHL · 2.5y

Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Carl Dahlstrom 13′#51	never stuck	67 GP