Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
17	Maddox Dagenais★	F	LHJMQ	18.4	STL*	26′ #16	1	23	82%	2.8y @21.2	294587	45.4
25	Justin Carbonneau	F	LHJMQ	19.7	STL*	25′ #19	1.33	30.6	72%	2.4y @22.1	233565	38.2
55	Adam Jiricek	D	OHL	20.1	STL	24′ #16	1.07	26.4	75%	2.3y @22.4	172965	33.1
360	Lars Steiner	F	LHJMQ	18.8	STL*	26′ #171	1.25	28.7	40%	4y @22.8	0356	21.2
426	Carter Stevens	F	OHL	18.6	STL*	26′ #150	0.68	16.7	40%	4y @22.6	0052	19.5
473	Colin Fitzgerald	F	OHL	18.4	STL*	26′ #203	0.53	13	38%	3.9y @22.3	0052	18.4
589	Luke Schairer	D	USHL	18.6	STL*	26′ #75	0.36	7.1	40%	4.2y @22.8	01544	15.7
634	Lukas Fischer	D	OHL	19.9	STL*	24′ #56	0.68	16.8	40%	2.7y @22.6	0047	14.9
800	Landon Nycz	D	NCAA	18.9	STL*	26′ #107	0.09	2.9	33%	4.2y @23.1	0029	12
1118	Adam Jecho	F	WHL	20.4	STL*	24′ #95	0.77	18.8	15%	2.5y @22.9	0024	8.1
1287	Colin Ralph	D	NCAA	20.9	STL	24′ #48	0.3	10	23%	3y @23.9	0027	6.6
1414	Tomas Mrsic	F	NCAA	20.5	STL*	24′ #113	0.28	9.3	15%	3.9y @24.4	0021	5.4
1694	Antoine Dorion	F	LHJMQ	20.8	STL*	24′ #209	0.56	12.9	10%	4.1y @24.9	0012	3.6
1765	William Mcisaac	D	WHL	20.2	STL*	24′ #145	0.52	12.7	7%	5.6y @25.8	0014	3.2

Who each prospect looks like

17. Maddox Dagenais82% NHL · 2.8y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Casey Mittelstadt 17′#8	62 pk	509 GP
Alex Tuch 14′#18	88 pk	615 GP

25. Justin Carbonneau72% NHL · 2.4y

Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP

55. Adam Jiricek75% NHL · 2.3y

Dante Fabbro 16′#17	34 pk	451 GP
Jacob Bernard-Docker 18′#26	16 pk	207 GP
Jake Bean 16′#13	31 pk	277 GP
Shea Theodore 13′#26	73 pk	634 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP

360. Lars Steiner40% NHL · 4y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Anthony Duclair 13′#80	64 pk	669 GP

426. Carter Stevens40% NHL · 4y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP

473. Colin Fitzgerald38% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

589. Luke Schairer40% NHL · 4.2y

Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Gustav Olofsson 13′#46	never stuck	63 GP
Filip Westerlund 17′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP

634. Lukas Fischer40% NHL · 2.7y

Mario Ferraro 17′#49	25 pk	490 GP
Jett Woo 18′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP

800. Landon Nycz33% NHL · 4.2y

Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP

1118. Adam Jecho15% NHL · 2.5y

Christophe Lalancette 12′#109	never stuck	0 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Samuel Dove-McFalls 15′#98	never stuck	0 GP
Felix Girard 13′#95	never stuck	0 GP
Dmitry Zhukenov 15′#114	never stuck	0 GP

1287. Colin Ralph23% NHL · 3y

Axel Andersson 18′#57	never stuck	0 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Jan Kostalek 13′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP

1414. Tomas Mrsic15% NHL · 3.9y

Jens Looke 15′#83	never stuck	0 GP
Christopher Paquette 16′#148	never stuck	0 GP
Miguel Fidler 14′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Santeri Virtanen 17′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Vladislav Kara 17′#124	never stuck	0 GP