Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Adam Jiricek | D | OHL | 20.1 | STL | 24′ #16 | 1.07 | 26.4 | 75% | 2.3y @22.4 | 172965 | 33.1 |
| 426 | Carter Stevens | F | OHL | 18.6 | STL* | 26′ #150 | 0.68 | 16.7 | 40% | 4y @22.6 | 0052 | 19.5 |
| 473 | Colin Fitzgerald | F | OHL | 18.4 | STL* | 26′ #203 | 0.53 | 13 | 38% | 3.9y @22.3 | 0052 | 18.4 |
| 634 | Lukas Fischer | D | OHL | 19.9 | STL* | 24′ #56 | 0.68 | 16.8 | 40% | 2.7y @22.6 | 0047 | 14.9 |
Who each prospect looks like
55. Adam Jiricek75% NHL · 2.3y
| Dante Fabbro 16′#17 | 34 pk | 451 GP |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker 18′#26 | 16 pk | 207 GP |
| Jake Bean 16′#13 | 31 pk | 277 GP |
| Shea Theodore 13′#26 | 73 pk | 634 GP |
| Ryan Pulock 13′#15 | 42 pk | 636 GP |
426. Carter Stevens40% NHL · 4y
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Motte 13′#121 | 34 pk | 455 GP |
| Luke Johnson 13′#134 | never stuck | 32 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominik Kubalik 13′#191 | 56 pk | 357 GP |
473. Colin Fitzgerald38% NHL · 3.9y
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Tyler Motte 13′#121 | 34 pk | 455 GP |
| Hudson Fasching 13′#118 | 32 pk | 175 GP |
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jarrod Maidens 12′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
634. Lukas Fischer40% NHL · 2.7y
| Mario Ferraro 17′#49 | 25 pk | 490 GP |
| Jett Woo 18′#37 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Vince Dunn 15′#56 | 65 pk | 623 GP |
| Joey Keane 18′#88 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66 | never stuck | 30 GP |