Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
215	Otto Stenberg	F	AHLPRO	21.2	STL*	23′ #25	0.47	17	60%	1.3y @22.5	02561	26.2
270	Juraj Pekarcik	F	AHLPRO	20.9	STL*	23′ #76	0.51	18.3	50%	1.8y @22.7	02559	23.9
488	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki	F	AHLPRO	22.5	STL*	22′ #73	0.69	24.8	47%	1.1y @23.6	01638	18.1
636	Theo Lindstein	D	AHLPRO	21.6	STL*	23′ #29	0.24	8.6	50%	1.2y @22.8	01432	14.8
902	Jakub Stancl	F	AHLPRO	21.4	STL*	23′ #106	0.32	11.4	20%	1.5y @22.9	0028	10.7
903	Quinton Burns	D	AHLPRO	21.4	STL*	23′ #74	0.16	5.8	35%	1.4y @22.8	0029	10.7
1064	Nikita Susuyev	F	AHLPRO	21.5	STL*	23′ #202	0.21	7.4	15%	2y @23.5	0025	8.7
1130	Michael Buchinger	D	AHLPRO	22.3	STL*	22′ #88	0.19	6.8	23%	2.5y @24.8	0026	7.8
1447	Zach Dean	F	AHLPRO	23.6	STL	21′ #30	0.39	14	12%	0.9y @24.5	0023	5
1997	Simon Robertsson	F	AHLPRO	23.5	STL*	21′ #71	0.17	6.3	5%	0.4y @23.9	000	1.1

Who each prospect looks like

215. Otto Stenberg60% NHL · 1.3y

Nikita Scherbak 14′#26	never stuck	37 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP
Ivan Barbashev 14′#33	61 pk	667 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP

270. Juraj Pekarcik50% NHL · 1.8y

Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
MacKenzie Entwistle 17′#69	18 pk	193 GP
Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58	75 pk	567 GP

488. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki47% NHL · 1.1y

Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP

636. Theo Lindstein50% NHL · 1.2y

Matthew Finn 12′#35	never stuck	0 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Gustav Lindstrom 17′#38	18 pk	174 GP
Jonas Siegenthaler 15′#57	22 pk	449 GP

902. Jakub Stancl20% NHL · 1.5y

Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP

903. Quinton Burns35% NHL · 1.4y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Pelech 12′#65	29 pk	642 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP

1064. Nikita Susuyev15% NHL · 2y

Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Chase Lang 14′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP

1130. Michael Buchinger23% NHL · 2.5y

Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Carl Dahlstrom 13′#51	never stuck	67 GP

1447. Zach Dean12% NHL · 0.9y

Marcus Davidsson 17′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Cam Morrison 16′#40	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Gropp 15′#41	never stuck	0 GP
Mitchell Heard 12′#41	never stuck	0 GP
Mitchell Moroz 12′#32	never stuck	0 GP

1997. Simon Robertsson5% NHL · 0.4y

Linus Lindstrom 16′#96	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Gallant 17′#83	never stuck	0 GP
Nick Henry 17′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Khovanov 18′#86	never stuck	0 GP
Troy Bourke 12′#72	never stuck	0 GP