Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
16	Maddox Dagenais★	F	LHJMQ	18.4	STL*	26′ #16	1	23	82%	2.8y @21.2	294587	45.4
22	Justin Carbonneau	F	LHJMQ	19.7	STL*	25′ #19	1.33	30.6	72%	2.4y @22.1	233565	38.2
59	Matvei Korotky	F	KHLPRO	20.7	STL	24′ #211	0.63	39.6	68%	2.3y @23	213358	32.1
203	Otto Stenberg	F	AHLPRO	21.2	STL*	23′ #25	0.47	17	60%	1.3y @22.5	02561	26.2
255	Juraj Pekarcik	F	AHLPRO	20.9	STL*	23′ #76	0.51	18.3	50%	1.8y @22.7	02559	23.9
309	Mikhail Fyodorov	F	KHLPRO	19.7	STL*	25′ #147	0.25	15.8	42%	3.1y @22.8	01558	21.6
315	Lars Steiner	F	LHJMQ	18.8	STL*	26′ #171	1.25	28.7	40%	4y @22.8	0356	21.2
360	Carter Stevens	F	OHL	18.6	STL*	26′ #150	0.68	16.7	40%	4y @22.6	0052	19.5
400	Colin Fitzgerald	F	OHL	18.4	STL*	26′ #203	0.53	13	38%	3.9y @22.3	0052	18.4
414	Aleksanteri Kaskimaki	F	AHLPRO	22.5	STL*	22′ #73	0.69	24.8	47%	1.1y @23.6	01638	18.1
674	Jakub Stancl	F	AHLPRO	21.4	STL*	23′ #106	0.32	11.4	20%	1.5y @22.9	0028	10.7
750	Nikita Susuyev	F	AHLPRO	21.5	STL*	23′ #202	0.21	7.4	15%	2y @23.5	0025	8.7
777	Adam Jecho	F	WHL	20.4	STL*	24′ #95	0.77	18.8	15%	2.5y @22.9	0024	8.1
967	Tomas Mrsic	F	NCAA	20.5	STL*	24′ #113	0.28	9.3	15%	3.9y @24.4	0021	5.4
988	Zach Dean	F	AHLPRO	23.6	STL	21′ #30	0.39	14	12%	0.9y @24.5	0023	5
1160	Antoine Dorion	F	LHJMQ	20.8	STL*	24′ #209	0.56	12.9	10%	4.1y @24.9	0012	3.6
1378	Simon Robertsson	F	AHLPRO	23.5	STL*	21′ #71	0.17	6.3	5%	0.4y @23.9	000	1.1

Who each prospect looks like

16. Maddox Dagenais82% NHL · 2.8y

Liam Foudy 18′#18	19 pk	105 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Casey Mittelstadt 17′#8	62 pk	509 GP
Alex Tuch 14′#18	88 pk	615 GP

22. Justin Carbonneau72% NHL · 2.4y

Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP

59. Matvei Korotky68% NHL · 2.3y

Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Emil Bemstrom 17′#117	33 pk	242 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

203. Otto Stenberg60% NHL · 1.3y

Nikita Scherbak 14′#26	never stuck	37 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP
Ivan Barbashev 14′#33	61 pk	667 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP

255. Juraj Pekarcik50% NHL · 1.8y

Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
MacKenzie Entwistle 17′#69	18 pk	193 GP
Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58	75 pk	567 GP

309. Mikhail Fyodorov42% NHL · 3.1y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Philipp Kurashev 18′#120	59 pk	360 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP

315. Lars Steiner40% NHL · 4y

Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Anthony Duclair 13′#80	64 pk	669 GP

360. Carter Stevens40% NHL · 4y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP

400. Colin Fitzgerald38% NHL · 3.9y

Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Tyler Motte 13′#121	34 pk	455 GP
Hudson Fasching 13′#118	32 pk	175 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP

414. Aleksanteri Kaskimaki47% NHL · 1.1y

Garrett Pilon 16′#87	never stuck	3 GP
Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48	34 pk	310 GP
Connor Dewar 18′#92	32 pk	316 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP

674. Jakub Stancl20% NHL · 1.5y

Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP

750. Nikita Susuyev15% NHL · 2y

Drake Rymsha 17′#138	never stuck	1 GP
Chase Lang 14′#167	never stuck	0 GP
Ivan Chekhovich 17′#212	never stuck	4 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Colin Smith 12′#192	never stuck	1 GP