Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Ryan Lin★ | D | WHL | 18.3 | SJS* | 26′ #21 | 1.08 | 26.5 | 68% | 1.7y @20 | 153366 | 35 |
| 474 | Jake Gustafson | F | WHL | 18.4 | SJS* | 26′ #174 | 0.37 | 9 | 38% | 3.9y @22.3 | 0052 | 18.4 |
| 602 | Carson Wetsch | F | WHL | 20.3 | SJS* | 24′ #82 | 1.11 | 27.2 | 35% | 3.4y @23.7 | 0049 | 15.4 |
| 1887 | Max Heise | F | WHL | 20.5 | SJS* | 25′ #150 | 1 | 24.6 | 7% | 3.3y @23.8 | 000 | 2.2 |
Who each prospect looks like
40. Ryan Lin68% NHL · 1.7y
| Jakob Chychrun 16′#16 | 64 pk | 621 GP |
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
| Ian McCoshen 13′#31 | never stuck | 60 GP |
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
474. Jake Gustafson38% NHL · 3.9y
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Tyler Motte 13′#121 | 34 pk | 455 GP |
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Hudson Fasching 13′#118 | 32 pk | 175 GP |
| Quentin Shore 13′#168 | never stuck | 0 GP |
602. Carson Wetsch35% NHL · 3.4y
| Luke Henman 18′#96 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| William Bitten 16′#70 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Joey Anderson 16′#73 | 25 pk | 169 GP |
| Filip Hallander 18′#58 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Garrett Pilon 16′#87 | never stuck | 3 GP |
1887. Max Heise7% NHL · 3.3y
| Dominik Lakatos 17′#157 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Garret Ross 12′#139 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Ryan Olsen 12′#160 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Pezzetta 16′#160 | 20 pk | 209 GP |
| Damien Riat 16′#117 | never stuck | 0 GP |