Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
54	Ivar Stenberg	F	SHLPRO	18.9	SJS	26′ #2	0.77	37.1	70%	3.5y @22.4	183065	33.3
419	Leo Sahlin Wallenius	D	SHLPRO	20.4	SJS*	24′ #53	0.41	19.7	55%	2.2y @22.6	111934	19.8

Who each prospect looks like

54. Ivar Stenberg70% NHL · 3.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Elias Pettersson 17′#5	105 pk	545 GP
Michael Dal Colle 14′#5	20 pk	112 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Grigori Denisenko 18′#15	never stuck	33 GP

419. Leo Sahlin Wallenius55% NHL · 2.2y

Filip Hronek 16′#53	52 pk	533 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP
Kale Clague 16′#51	never stuck	94 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP