Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
74	Quentin Musty	F	AHLPRO	21.1	SJS*	23′ #26	0.74	26.6	68%	1.6y @22.7	183069	31.5
82	Igor Chernyshov	F	AHLPRO	20.7	SJS*	24′ #33	0.8	29	68%	2.1y @22.8	183264	31
240	Kasper Halttunen	F	AHLPRO	21.2	SJS*	23′ #36	0.51	18.3	57%	1.6y @22.8	02555	24.9
372	Filip Bystedt	F	AHLPRO	22.5	SJS	22′ #27	0.92	33.3	47%	0.7y @23.2	02342	20.9
514	Luca Cagnoni	D	AHLPRO	21.7	SJS*	23′ #123	0.64	23.2	45%	1.6y @23.3	01344	17.3
1050	Jake Furlong	D	AHLPRO	22.5	SJS*	22′ #140	0.24	8.7	28%	2.9y @25.4	0026	8.8
1082	Mattias Havelid	D	AHLPRO	22.6	SJS*	22′ #45	0.34	12.3	20%	1.5y @24.1	0027	8.5
1386	Ethan Cardwell	F	AHLPRO	24	SJS*	21′ #121	0.62	22.6	12%	2.2y @26.2	0027	5.6
2031	Max McCue	F	AHLPRO	23.5	SJS*	21′ #156	0.31	11.1	3%	0.4y @23.9	000	0.5

Who each prospect looks like

74. Quentin Musty68% NHL · 1.6y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP

82. Igor Chernyshov68% NHL · 2.1y

Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Eetu Luostarinen 17′#42	43 pk	447 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP

240. Kasper Halttunen57% NHL · 1.6y

Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Ivan Barbashev 14′#33	61 pk	667 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP
Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP

372. Filip Bystedt47% NHL · 0.7y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP

514. Luca Cagnoni45% NHL · 1.6y

Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

1050. Jake Furlong28% NHL · 2.9y

Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Justin Hache 12′#208	never stuck	0 GP

1082. Mattias Havelid20% NHL · 1.5y

Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Cam Dineen 16′#68	never stuck	38 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP

1386. Ethan Cardwell12% NHL · 2.2y

Lauri Pajuniemi 18′#132	never stuck	0 GP
Angus Crookshank 18′#126	never stuck	29 GP
Linus Olund 17′#155	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP

2031. Max McCue3% NHL · 0.4y

Daniel Walcott 14′#140	never stuck	1 GP
Manuel Wiederer 16′#150	never stuck	0 GP
John Dahlstrom 15′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Spencer Smallman 15′#138	never stuck	0 GP
Bokondji Imama 15′#180	never stuck	33 GP