Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jake O'Brien★ | F | OHL | 19.2 | SEA* | 25′ #8 | 1.75 | 43.2 | 90% | 1y @20.2 | 417095 | 62.5 |
| 21 | Chase Reid★ | D | OHL | 18.6 | SEA* | 26′ #7 | 1.07 | 26.2 | 82% | 1.6y @20.2 | 224376 | 42.5 |
| 123 | Casey Mutryn | F | USHL | 18.1 | SEA* | 26′ #38 | 0.64 | 12.6 | 55% | 3.7y @21.8 | 02968 | 28.7 |
| 150 | Jani Nyman | F | AHLPRO | 22.1 | SEA* | 22′ #49 | 0.85 | 30.5 | 60% | 1y @23.1 | 03065 | 28.1 |
| 154 | Oscar Fisker Molgaard | F | AHLPRO | 21.5 | SEA* | 23′ #52 | 0.69 | 25 | 62% | 1.6y @23.1 | 153253 | 28.1 |
| 224 | Eduard Sale | F | AHLPRO | 21.4 | SEA | 23′ #20 | 0.47 | 16.8 | 62% | 1.2y @22.6 | 02755 | 25.7 |
| 305 | Viktor Fedorov | F | VHLPRO | 18.5 | SEA* | 26′ #99 | 0.25 | 6.1 | 50% | 3.7y @22.2 | 01661 | 22.6 |
| 344 | Jagger Firkus | F | AHLPRO | 22.3 | SEA | 22′ #35 | 0.89 | 32.1 | 50% | 0.8y @23.1 | 02442 | 21.6 |
| 483 | Zaccharya Wisdom | F | NCAAPRO | 22.3 | SEA* | 23′ #212 | 0.77 | 25.9 | 33% | 1.4y @23.7 | 01551 | 18.4 |
| 505 | Julius Miettinen | F | WHL | 20.6 | SEA* | 24′ #40 | 1.46 | 36 | 40% | 2.8y @23.4 | 0645 | 17.5 |
| 518 | Tyson Jugnauth | D | AHLPRO | 22.3 | SEA* | 22′ #100 | 0.62 | 22.6 | 40% | 1.7y @24 | 01344 | 17.2 |
| 522 | Ty Nelson | D | AHLPRO | 22.4 | SEA* | 22′ #68 | 0.56 | 20 | 35% | 1.4y @23.8 | 01352 | 17.1 |
| 547 | Blake Fiddler | F | WHL | 19.1 | SEA* | 25′ #36 | 0.57 | 14.1 | 38% | 3.2y @22.3 | 0046 | 16.6 |
| 569 | Carson Rehkopf | F | AHLPRO | 21.6 | SEA* | 23′ #50 | 0.28 | 9.9 | 42% | 1.6y @23.2 | 01237 | 16 |
| 574 | Barrett Hall | F | NCAAPRO | 22.6 | SEA* | 22′ #164 | 0.78 | 26.1 | 28% | 1.1y @23.7 | 0048 | 15.8 |
| 593 | Loke Krantz | F | SHLPRO | 19.3 | SEA* | 25′ #218 | 0.07 | 3.2 | 33% | 3.5y @22.8 | 0055 | 15.6 |
| 596 | Nathan Villeneuve | F | OHL | 20.4 | SEA* | 24′ #63 | 1.35 | 33.3 | 33% | 3.3y @23.7 | 0046 | 15.5 |
| 693 | Karl Annborn | D | ALLSVENSKANPRO | 19.5 | SEA* | 25′ #205 | 0.38 | 11.8 | 40% | 2.9y @22.4 | 01129 | 13.7 |
| 722 | Caden Price | D | AHLPRO | 21 | SEA* | 23′ #84 | 0.26 | 9.4 | 42% | 1.7y @22.7 | 01129 | 13.1 |
| 787 | Maxim Agafonov | D | VHLPRO | 19.4 | SEA* | 25′ #134 | 0.18 | 4.4 | 40% | 3y @22.4 | 01129 | 12.3 |
| 854 | Ben MacDonald | F | NCAAPRO | 22.5 | SEA* | 22′ #91 | 0.43 | 14.6 | 25% | 1.5y @24 | 0033 | 11.3 |
| 863 | Lukas Dragicevic | D | AHLPRO | 21.3 | SEA* | 23′ #57 | 0.26 | 9.2 | 38% | 1.5y @22.8 | 0729 | 11.2 |
| 873 | Rylan Singh | D | OHL | 18.9 | SEA* | 26′ #198 | 0.44 | 10.9 | 30% | 5.2y @24.1 | 0029 | 11.1 |
| 901 | Andrei Loshko | F | AHLPRO | 21.9 | SEA* | 23′ #116 | 0.27 | 9.9 | 20% | 1.1y @23 | 0028 | 10.7 |
| 940 | Tucker Robertson | F | AHLPRO | 23.2 | SEA* | 22′ #123 | 0.44 | 16 | 20% | 2.1y @25.3 | 0033 | 10.3 |
| 965 | Jacob Melanson | F | AHLPRO | 23.3 | SEA* | 21′ #131 | 0.68 | 24.5 | 20% | 2.5y @25.8 | 0036 | 10 |
| 970 | Will Reynolds | D | LHJMQ | 19 | SEA* | 25′ #68 | 0.41 | 9.4 | 25% | 3.3y @22.3 | 0029 | 10 |
| 1076 | Kaden Hammell | D | AHLPRO | 21.4 | SEA* | 23′ #148 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 25% | 2.7y @24.1 | 0023 | 8.6 |
| 1171 | David Goyette | F | AHLPRO | 22.4 | SEA* | 22′ #61 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 23% | 1.2y @23.6 | 0026 | 7.4 |
| 1218 | Jakub Fibigr | D | OHL | 20.1 | SEA* | 24′ #202 | 0.77 | 19 | 15% | 4.6y @24.7 | 0031 | 7 |
| 1225 | Zeb Forsfjall | F | SHLPRO | 21.6 | SEA* | 23′ #180 | 0.14 | 6.9 | 12% | 1.6y @23.2 | 0025 | 7 |
| 1338 | Clarke Caswell | F | NCAA | 20.5 | SEA* | 24′ #141 | 0.79 | 26.6 | 10% | 3.7y @24.2 | 0021 | 6.2 |
| 1343 | Ollie Josephson | F | NCAA | 20.1 | SEA* | 24′ #105 | 0.53 | 17.7 | 12% | 2.7y @22.8 | 0021 | 6.1 |
| 1364 | Alexis Bernier | D | LHJMQ | 20.2 | SEA* | 24′ #73 | 0.57 | 13.1 | 12% | 4.3y @24.5 | 0016 | 5.9 |
| 1616 | Ville Ottavainen | D | AHLPRO | 24 | SEA* | 21′ #99 | 0.32 | 11.6 | 10% | 2.1y @26.1 | 0015 | 4 |
| 1698 | William Tomko | F | USHL | 19.8 | SEA* | 26′ #204 | 1.02 | 20 | 7% | 2.5y @22.3 | 000 | 3.6 |
Who each prospect looks like
4. Jake O'Brien90% NHL · 1y
| Barrett Hayton 18′#5 | 46 pk | 358 GP |
| Gabriel Vilardi 17′#11 | 70 pk | 352 GP |
| Robert Thomas 17′#20 | 95 pk | 530 GP |
| Mathew Barzal 15′#16 | 85 pk | 611 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
21. Chase Reid82% NHL · 1.6y
| Adam Boqvist 18′#8 | 43 pk | 272 GP |
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
| Darnell Nurse 13′#7 | 53 pk | 798 GP |
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
123. Casey Mutryn55% NHL · 3.7y
| Ivan Morozov 18′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Alex Formenton 17′#47 | 33 pk | 109 GP |
| Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
150. Jani Nyman60% NHL · 1y
| Kirill Marchenko 18′#49 | 77 pk | 292 GP |
| Nick Sorensen 13′#45 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Alexander Volkov 17′#48 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Mitchell Stephens 15′#33 | 18 pk | 123 GP |
| Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55 | 65 pk | 660 GP |
154. Oscar Fisker Molgaard62% NHL · 1.6y
| Kevin Stenlund 15′#58 | 28 pk | 368 GP |
| Kole Lind 17′#33 | never stuck | 31 GP |
| Mitchell Stephens 15′#33 | 18 pk | 123 GP |
| Brendan Leipsic 12′#89 | 33 pk | 187 GP |
| Sven Andrighetto 13′#86 | 36 pk | 216 GP |
224. Eduard Sale62% NHL · 1.2y
| Zach Senyshyn 15′#15 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Adam Erne 13′#33 | 36 pk | 424 GP |
| Brendan Gaunce 12′#26 | 20 pk | 214 GP |
| Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24 | never stuck | 15 GP |
| Joe Veleno 18′#30 | 29 pk | 367 GP |
305. Viktor Fedorov50% NHL · 3.7y
| Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dominic Turgeon 14′#63 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Beck Malenstyn 16′#145 | 21 pk | 262 GP |
| Taylor Leier 12′#117 | never stuck | 55 GP |
| Givani Smith 16′#46 | 12 pk | 168 GP |
344. Jagger Firkus50% NHL · 0.8y
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
| Nick Sorensen 13′#45 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Egor Korshkov 16′#31 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Kole Lind 17′#33 | never stuck | 31 GP |
| Mitchell Stephens 15′#33 | 18 pk | 123 GP |
483. Zaccharya Wisdom33% NHL · 1.4y
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Andreas Johnsson 13′#202 | 48 pk | 259 GP |
| Riley Barber 12′#167 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Cameron Hughes 15′#165 | never stuck | 5 GP |
505. Julius Miettinen40% NHL · 2.8y
| Brendan Lemieux 14′#31 | 25 pk | 307 GP |
| Jack Drury 18′#42 | 30 pk | 268 GP |
| Adam Erne 13′#33 | 36 pk | 424 GP |
| Laurent Dauphin 13′#39 | never stuck | 94 GP |
| Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62 | never stuck | 77 GP |
518. Tyson Jugnauth40% NHL · 1.7y
| Lucas Carlsson 16′#110 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Andrei Mironov 15′#101 | never stuck | 10 GP |
| Reilly Walsh 17′#81 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Markus Nutivaara 15′#189 | 31 pk | 275 GP |
522. Ty Nelson35% NHL · 1.4y
| Reilly Walsh 17′#81 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Lucas Carlsson 16′#110 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Sean Durzi 18′#52 | 44 pk | 302 GP |
| Madison Bowey 13′#53 | 26 pk | 158 GP |