Kodo HockeyProspect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jake O'Brien★ | F | OHL | 19.2 | SEA* | 25′ #8 | 1.75 | 43.2 | 90% | 1y @20.2 | 417095 | 62.5 |
| 21 | Chase Reid★ | D | OHL | 18.6 | SEA* | 26′ #7 | 1.07 | 26.2 | 82% | 1.6y @20.2 | 224376 | 42.5 |
| 596 | Nathan Villeneuve | F | OHL | 20.4 | SEA* | 24′ #63 | 1.35 | 33.3 | 33% | 3.3y @23.7 | 0046 | 15.5 |
| 873 | Rylan Singh | D | OHL | 18.9 | SEA* | 26′ #198 | 0.44 | 10.9 | 30% | 5.2y @24.1 | 0029 | 11.1 |
| 1218 | Jakub Fibigr | D | OHL | 20.1 | SEA* | 24′ #202 | 0.77 | 19 | 15% | 4.6y @24.7 | 0031 | 7 |
Who each prospect looks like
4. Jake O'Brien90% NHL · 1y
| Barrett Hayton 18′#5 | 46 pk | 358 GP |
| Gabriel Vilardi 17′#11 | 70 pk | 352 GP |
| Robert Thomas 17′#20 | 95 pk | 530 GP |
| Mathew Barzal 15′#16 | 85 pk | 611 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
21. Chase Reid82% NHL · 1.6y
| Adam Boqvist 18′#8 | 43 pk | 272 GP |
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
| Darnell Nurse 13′#7 | 53 pk | 798 GP |
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
596. Nathan Villeneuve33% NHL · 3.3y
| Chandler Stephenson 12′#77 | 66 pk | 653 GP |
| Cole Cassels 13′#85 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Erik Foley 15′#78 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel 14′#48 | 34 pk | 310 GP |
| Brady Vail 12′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |
873. Rylan Singh30% NHL · 5.2y
| Ville Rasanen 17′#197 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brian Cooper 12′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
| Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85 | 44 pk | 596 GP |
1218. Jakub Fibigr15% NHL · 4.6y
| Matt Brassard 17′#188 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kyle Burroughs 13′#196 | 10 pk | 201 GP |
| Jakub Galvas 17′#150 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Connor Corcoran 18′#154 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Carl Neill 15′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |