Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
970	Will Reynolds	D	LHJMQ	19	SEA*	25′ #68	0.41	9.4	25%	3.3y @22.3	0029	10
1364	Alexis Bernier	D	LHJMQ	20.2	SEA*	24′ #73	0.57	13.1	12%	4.3y @24.5	0016	5.9

Who each prospect looks like

970. Will Reynolds25% NHL · 3.3y

Gustav Olofsson 13′#46	never stuck	63 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Patrick Sieloff 12′#42	never stuck	2 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP

1364. Alexis Bernier12% NHL · 4.3y

Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Karlis Cukste 15′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Ben Thomas 14′#119	never stuck	5 GP
Louie Belpedio 14′#80	never stuck	16 GP