Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
150	Jani Nyman	F	AHLPRO	22.1	SEA*	22′ #49	0.85	30.5	60%	1y @23.1	03065	28.1
154	Oscar Fisker Molgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	SEA*	23′ #52	0.69	25	62%	1.6y @23.1	153253	28.1
224	Eduard Sale	F	AHLPRO	21.4	SEA	23′ #20	0.47	16.8	62%	1.2y @22.6	02755	25.7
344	Jagger Firkus	F	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA	22′ #35	0.89	32.1	50%	0.8y @23.1	02442	21.6
518	Tyson Jugnauth	D	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA*	22′ #100	0.62	22.6	40%	1.7y @24	01344	17.2
522	Ty Nelson	D	AHLPRO	22.4	SEA*	22′ #68	0.56	20	35%	1.4y @23.8	01352	17.1
569	Carson Rehkopf	F	AHLPRO	21.6	SEA*	23′ #50	0.28	9.9	42%	1.6y @23.2	01237	16
722	Caden Price	D	AHLPRO	21	SEA*	23′ #84	0.26	9.4	42%	1.7y @22.7	01129	13.1
863	Lukas Dragicevic	D	AHLPRO	21.3	SEA*	23′ #57	0.26	9.2	38%	1.5y @22.8	0729	11.2
901	Andrei Loshko	F	AHLPRO	21.9	SEA*	23′ #116	0.27	9.9	20%	1.1y @23	0028	10.7
940	Tucker Robertson	F	AHLPRO	23.2	SEA*	22′ #123	0.44	16	20%	2.1y @25.3	0033	10.3
965	Jacob Melanson	F	AHLPRO	23.3	SEA*	21′ #131	0.68	24.5	20%	2.5y @25.8	0036	10
1076	Kaden Hammell	D	AHLPRO	21.4	SEA*	23′ #148	0.3	10.7	25%	2.7y @24.1	0023	8.6
1171	David Goyette	F	AHLPRO	22.4	SEA*	22′ #61	0.2	7.1	23%	1.2y @23.6	0026	7.4
1616	Ville Ottavainen	D	AHLPRO	24	SEA*	21′ #99	0.32	11.6	10%	2.1y @26.1	0015	4

Who each prospect looks like

150. Jani Nyman60% NHL · 1y

Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

154. Oscar Fisker Molgaard62% NHL · 1.6y

Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP

224. Eduard Sale62% NHL · 1.2y

Zach Senyshyn 15′#15	never stuck	16 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP

344. Jagger Firkus50% NHL · 0.8y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP

518. Tyson Jugnauth40% NHL · 1.7y

Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP

522. Ty Nelson35% NHL · 1.4y

Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP

569. Carson Rehkopf42% NHL · 1.6y

Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP
Dylan Sadowy 14′#81	never stuck	0 GP
Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP

722. Caden Price42% NHL · 1.7y

Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP

863. Lukas Dragicevic38% NHL · 1.5y

Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66	never stuck	30 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP
Dillon Fournier 12′#48	never stuck	0 GP
Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52	16 pk	384 GP

901. Andrei Loshko20% NHL · 1.1y

Jonathan Gruden 18′#95	never stuck	16 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP
Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Nathan Noel 16′#113	never stuck	0 GP
JC Lipon 13′#91	never stuck	9 GP

940. Tucker Robertson20% NHL · 2.1y

Michael Spacek 15′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Jonny Brodzinski 13′#148	31 pk	264 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Anton Karlsson 14′#87	never stuck	0 GP

965. Jacob Melanson20% NHL · 2.5y

Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Emil Pettersson 13′#155	never stuck	0 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP