Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
4	Jake O'Brien★	F	OHL	19.2	SEA*	25′ #8	1.75	43.2	90%	1y @20.2	417095	62.5
113	Casey Mutryn	F	USHL	18.1	SEA*	26′ #38	0.64	12.6	55%	3.7y @21.8	02968	28.7
139	Jani Nyman	F	AHLPRO	22.1	SEA*	22′ #49	0.85	30.5	60%	1y @23.1	03065	28.1
143	Oscar Fisker Molgaard	F	AHLPRO	21.5	SEA*	23′ #52	0.69	25	62%	1.6y @23.1	153253	28.1
212	Eduard Sale	F	AHLPRO	21.4	SEA	23′ #20	0.47	16.8	62%	1.2y @22.6	02755	25.7
281	Viktor Fedorov	F	VHLPRO	18.5	SEA*	26′ #99	0.25	6.1	50%	3.7y @22.2	01661	22.6
306	Jagger Firkus	F	AHLPRO	22.3	SEA	22′ #35	0.89	32.1	50%	0.8y @23.1	02442	21.6
410	Zaccharya Wisdom	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	SEA*	23′ #212	0.77	25.9	33%	1.4y @23.7	01551	18.4
428	Julius Miettinen	F	WHL	20.6	SEA*	24′ #40	1.46	36	40%	2.8y @23.4	0645	17.5
456	Blake Fiddler	F	WHL	19.1	SEA*	25′ #36	0.57	14.1	38%	3.2y @22.3	0046	16.6
472	Carson Rehkopf	F	AHLPRO	21.6	SEA*	23′ #50	0.28	9.9	42%	1.6y @23.2	01237	16
475	Barrett Hall	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	SEA*	22′ #164	0.78	26.1	28%	1.1y @23.7	0048	15.8
487	Loke Krantz	F	SHLPRO	19.3	SEA*	25′ #218	0.07	3.2	33%	3.5y @22.8	0055	15.6
490	Nathan Villeneuve	F	OHL	20.4	SEA*	24′ #63	1.35	33.3	33%	3.3y @23.7	0046	15.5
658	Ben MacDonald	F	NCAAPRO	22.5	SEA*	22′ #91	0.43	14.6	25%	1.5y @24	0033	11.3
673	Andrei Loshko	F	AHLPRO	21.9	SEA*	23′ #116	0.27	9.9	20%	1.1y @23	0028	10.7
693	Tucker Robertson	F	AHLPRO	23.2	SEA*	22′ #123	0.44	16	20%	2.1y @25.3	0033	10.3
707	Jacob Melanson	F	AHLPRO	23.3	SEA*	21′ #131	0.68	24.5	20%	2.5y @25.8	0036	10
811	David Goyette	F	AHLPRO	22.4	SEA*	22′ #61	0.2	7.1	23%	1.2y @23.6	0026	7.4
848	Zeb Forsfjall	F	SHLPRO	21.6	SEA*	23′ #180	0.14	6.9	12%	1.6y @23.2	0025	7
920	Clarke Caswell	F	NCAA	20.5	SEA*	24′ #141	0.79	26.6	10%	3.7y @24.2	0021	6.2
924	Ollie Josephson	F	NCAA	20.1	SEA*	24′ #105	0.53	17.7	12%	2.7y @22.8	0021	6.1
1164	William Tomko	F	USHL	19.8	SEA*	26′ #204	1.02	20	7%	2.5y @22.3	000	3.6

Who each prospect looks like

4. Jake O'Brien90% NHL · 1y

Barrett Hayton 18′#5	46 pk	358 GP
Gabriel Vilardi 17′#11	70 pk	352 GP
Robert Thomas 17′#20	95 pk	530 GP
Mathew Barzal 15′#16	85 pk	611 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP

113. Casey Mutryn55% NHL · 3.7y

Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP
Scott Laughton 12′#20	45 pk	745 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP

139. Jani Nyman60% NHL · 1y

Kirill Marchenko 18′#49	77 pk	292 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

143. Oscar Fisker Molgaard62% NHL · 1.6y

Kevin Stenlund 15′#58	28 pk	368 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Brendan Leipsic 12′#89	33 pk	187 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP

212. Eduard Sale62% NHL · 1.2y

Zach Senyshyn 15′#15	never stuck	16 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Hunter Shinkaruk 13′#24	never stuck	15 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP

281. Viktor Fedorov50% NHL · 3.7y

Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Turgeon 14′#63	never stuck	9 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Givani Smith 16′#46	12 pk	168 GP

306. Jagger Firkus50% NHL · 0.8y

Jonatan Berggren 18′#33	36 pk	205 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Egor Korshkov 16′#31	never stuck	1 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP

410. Zaccharya Wisdom33% NHL · 1.4y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Andreas Johnsson 13′#202	48 pk	259 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP

428. Julius Miettinen40% NHL · 2.8y

Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Laurent Dauphin 13′#39	never stuck	94 GP
Jake Leschyshyn 17′#62	never stuck	77 GP

456. Blake Fiddler38% NHL · 3.2y

Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Hurley 13′#38	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
David Gustafsson 18′#60	15 pk	149 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP

472. Carson Rehkopf42% NHL · 1.6y

Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP
Dylan Sadowy 14′#81	never stuck	0 GP
Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP

475. Barrett Hall28% NHL · 1.1y

Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Dmytro Timashov 15′#125	never stuck	45 GP
Andreas Johnsson 13′#202	48 pk	259 GP
Jake Evans 14′#207	36 pk	418 GP