Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Chase Reid★ | D | OHL | 18.6 | SEA* | 26′ #7 | 1.07 | 26.2 | 82% | 1.6y @20.2 | 224376 | 42.5 |
| 82 | Tyson Jugnauth | D | AHLPRO | 22.3 | SEA* | 22′ #100 | 0.62 | 22.6 | 40% | 1.7y @24 | 01344 | 17.2 |
| 84 | Ty Nelson | D | AHLPRO | 22.4 | SEA* | 22′ #68 | 0.56 | 20 | 35% | 1.4y @23.8 | 01352 | 17.1 |
| 139 | Karl Annborn | D | ALLSVENSKANPRO | 19.5 | SEA* | 25′ #205 | 0.38 | 11.8 | 40% | 2.9y @22.4 | 01129 | 13.7 |
| 147 | Caden Price | D | AHLPRO | 21 | SEA* | 23′ #84 | 0.26 | 9.4 | 42% | 1.7y @22.7 | 01129 | 13.1 |
| 169 | Maxim Agafonov | D | VHLPRO | 19.4 | SEA* | 25′ #134 | 0.18 | 4.4 | 40% | 3y @22.4 | 01129 | 12.3 |
| 205 | Lukas Dragicevic | D | AHLPRO | 21.3 | SEA* | 23′ #57 | 0.26 | 9.2 | 38% | 1.5y @22.8 | 0729 | 11.2 |
| 212 | Rylan Singh | D | OHL | 18.9 | SEA* | 26′ #198 | 0.44 | 10.9 | 30% | 5.2y @24.1 | 0029 | 11.1 |
| 260 | Will Reynolds | D | LHJMQ | 19 | SEA* | 25′ #68 | 0.41 | 9.4 | 25% | 3.3y @22.3 | 0029 | 10 |
| 322 | Kaden Hammell | D | AHLPRO | 21.4 | SEA* | 23′ #148 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 25% | 2.7y @24.1 | 0023 | 8.6 |
| 373 | Jakub Fibigr | D | OHL | 20.1 | SEA* | 24′ #202 | 0.77 | 19 | 15% | 4.6y @24.7 | 0031 | 7 |
| 429 | Alexis Bernier | D | LHJMQ | 20.2 | SEA* | 24′ #73 | 0.57 | 13.1 | 12% | 4.3y @24.5 | 0016 | 5.9 |
| 511 | Ville Ottavainen | D | AHLPRO | 24 | SEA* | 21′ #99 | 0.32 | 11.6 | 10% | 2.1y @26.1 | 0015 | 4 |
Who each prospect looks like
2. Chase Reid82% NHL · 1.6y
| Adam Boqvist 18′#8 | 43 pk | 272 GP |
| Quinn Hughes 18′#7 | 92 pk | 507 GP |
| Evan Bouchard 18′#10 | 95 pk | 429 GP |
| Darnell Nurse 13′#7 | 53 pk | 798 GP |
| Mikhail Sergachev 16′#9 | 66 pk | 630 GP |
82. Tyson Jugnauth40% NHL · 1.7y
| Lucas Carlsson 16′#110 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Andrei Mironov 15′#101 | never stuck | 10 GP |
| Reilly Walsh 17′#81 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Markus Nutivaara 15′#189 | 31 pk | 275 GP |
84. Ty Nelson35% NHL · 1.4y
| Reilly Walsh 17′#81 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Lucas Carlsson 16′#110 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Sean Durzi 18′#52 | 44 pk | 302 GP |
| Madison Bowey 13′#53 | 26 pk | 158 GP |
139. Karl Annborn40% NHL · 2.9y
| Gustav Forsling 14′#126 | 43 pk | 557 GP |
| Jacob Cederholm 16′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cale Fleury 17′#87 | 11 pk | 100 GP |
| Maxime Lajoie 16′#133 | never stuck | 77 GP |
| Sami Niku 15′#198 | never stuck | 67 GP |
147. Caden Price42% NHL · 1.7y
| Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66 | never stuck | 30 GP |
| Colton White 15′#97 | 14 pk | 107 GP |
| Caleb Jones 15′#117 | 24 pk | 255 GP |
| Maxime Lajoie 16′#133 | never stuck | 77 GP |
| Brandon Crawley 17′#123 | never stuck | 0 GP |
169. Maxim Agafonov40% NHL · 3y
| Jacob Cederholm 16′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Cale Fleury 17′#87 | 11 pk | 100 GP |
| Martin Fehérváry 18′#46 | 27 pk | 380 GP |
| Maxime Lajoie 16′#133 | never stuck | 77 GP |
| Robert Hagg 13′#41 | 22 pk | 345 GP |
205. Lukas Dragicevic38% NHL · 1.5y
| Roland McKeown 14′#50 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Guillaume Brisebois 15′#66 | never stuck | 30 GP |
| Josh Jacobs 14′#41 | never stuck | 3 GP |
| Dillon Fournier 12′#48 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jeremy Lauzon 15′#52 | 16 pk | 384 GP |
212. Rylan Singh30% NHL · 5.2y
| Ville Rasanen 17′#197 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brian Cooper 12′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
| Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85 | 44 pk | 596 GP |
260. Will Reynolds25% NHL · 3.3y
| Gustav Olofsson 13′#46 | never stuck | 63 GP |
| Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85 | 44 pk | 596 GP |
| Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Patrick Sieloff 12′#42 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
322. Kaden Hammell25% NHL · 2.7y
| Anton Cederholm 13′#145 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brandon Crawley 17′#123 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Blake Siebenaler 14′#77 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tim Berni 18′#159 | never stuck | 59 GP |
| Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151 | never stuck | 0 GP |
373. Jakub Fibigr15% NHL · 4.6y
| Matt Brassard 17′#188 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Kyle Burroughs 13′#196 | 10 pk | 201 GP |
| Jakub Galvas 17′#150 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Connor Corcoran 18′#154 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Carl Neill 15′#144 | never stuck | 0 GP |
429. Alexis Bernier12% NHL · 4.3y
| Lucas Carlsson 16′#110 | never stuck | 73 GP |
| Karlis Cukste 15′#130 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Joey Keane 18′#88 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Ben Thomas 14′#119 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Louie Belpedio 14′#80 | never stuck | 16 GP |