Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
117	Tanner Howe	F	AHLPRO	20.7	PIT*	24′ #46	0.59	21.4	57%	1.7y @22.4	42565	28.8
164	Cruz Lucius	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	PIT	22′ #124	1.28	43	47%	1y @23.4	02965	27.5
189	Mikhail Ilyin	F	KHLPRO	21.5	PIT	23′ #142	0.65	40.9	57%	1.6y @23.1	62951	26.8
203	Zam Plante	F	NCAAPRO	22	PIT	22′ #150	1.25	42	57%	1.1y @23.1	02951	26.6
356	Brayden Yager	F	AHLPRO	21.6	PIT*	23′ #14	0.44	15.9	53%	1.3y @22.9	02053	21.3
378	Emil Jarventie	F	MESTISPRO	21.4	PIT*	23′ #217	0.81	19.9	38%	1.5y @22.9	01255	20.8
565	Ville Koivunen	F	AHLPRO	23.2	PIT	21′ #51	1.21	43.5	25%	0.7y @23.9	0064	16.1
681	Owen Pickering	D	AHLPRO	22.6	PIT*	22′ #21	0.41	14.9	35%	0.7y @23.3	01132	13.8
992	Finn Harding	D	AHLPRO	21.5	PIT*	24′ #223	0.41	14.7	30%	2.6y @24.1	0026	9.6
1035	Tristan Broz	F	AHLPRO	23.9	PIT*	21′ #58	0.83	29.9	17%	1y @24.9	0036	9
1072	Kalle Kangas	D	LIIGAPRO	21.5	PIT*	23′ #223	0.1	4.3	25%	3.1y @24.6	0026	8.7
1074	Chase Pietila	D	AHLPRO	22.5	PIT*	24′ #111	0.24	8.7	28%	1.6y @24.1	0026	8.6
1416	Luke Devlin	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	PIT*	22′ #182	0.25	8.4	7%	1.5y @23.9	0022	5.3
1478	Nolan Collins	D	NCAAPRO	22.3	PIT*	22′ #167	0.08	2.7	15%	2.7y @25	0020	4.8
1768	Isaac Belliveau	D	AHLPRO	23.7	PIT*	21′ #154	0.17	6	10%	2.4y @26.1	0015	3.1

Who each prospect looks like

117. Tanner Howe57% NHL · 1.7y

Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP

164. Cruz Lucius47% NHL · 1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pontus Holmberg 18′#156	29 pk	229 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP

189. Mikhail Ilyin57% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

203. Zam Plante57% NHL · 1.1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP

356. Brayden Yager53% NHL · 1.3y

Zach Senyshyn 15′#15	never stuck	16 GP
Radek Faksa 12′#13	34 pk	766 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP

378. Emil Jarventie38% NHL · 1.5y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Sammy Blais 14′#176	53 pk	278 GP

565. Ville Koivunen25% NHL · 0.7y

Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Julius Nattinen 15′#59	never stuck	0 GP
Carter Verhaeghe 13′#82	78 pk	488 GP

681. Owen Pickering35% NHL · 0.7y

Jordan Schmaltz 12′#25	never stuck	42 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Madison Bowey 13′#53	26 pk	158 GP
Jeremy Roy 15′#31	never stuck	0 GP

992. Finn Harding30% NHL · 2.6y

Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP

1035. Tristan Broz17% NHL · 1y

Robin Kovacs 15′#62	never stuck	0 GP
Kasper Bjorkqvist 16′#61	never stuck	6 GP
Bulat Shafigullin 18′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Martins Dzierkals 15′#68	never stuck	0 GP
Noah Rod 14′#53	never stuck	0 GP

1072. Kalle Kangas25% NHL · 3.1y

Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP

1074. Chase Pietila28% NHL · 1.6y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Frederic Allard 16′#78	never stuck	4 GP