Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
9	Liam Ruck★	F	WHL	18.5	PIT*	26′ #22	1.53	37.6	88%	2y @20.5	345791	56.7
10	Markus Ruck★	F	WHL	18.5	PIT*	26′ #39	1.59	39.1	85%	2.1y @20.6	345791	54.7
33	William Horcoff	F	NCAA	19.6	PIT	25′ #24	0.97	32.8	68%	2.4y @22	163571	36.1
51	Bill Zonnon	F	LHJMQ	19.9	PIT*	25′ #22	1.31	30.2	62%	2.5y @22.4	193562	33.7
58	Pierce Mbuyi	F	OHL	18.3	PIT*	26′ #86	1.1	27.1	65%	3.6y @21.9	03368	32.9
389	Harrison Brunicke	D	WHL	20.3	PIT*	24′ #44	1	24.6	55%	2.5y @22.8	02151	20.3
669	Travis Hayes	F	OHL	19	PIT*	25′ #105	0.63	15.6	33%	3.8y @22.8	0046	14.1
832	Ryan Miller	F	WHL	19.3	PIT*	25′ #130	1.17	28.8	28%	3.7y @23	0044	11.7
900	Carter Sanderson	F	USHL	18.9	PIT*	25′ #169	0.63	12.4	23%	5y @23.9	0046	10.8
905	Jordan Charron	F	OHL	19.2	PIT*	25′ #154	0.71	17.5	20%	3.9y @23.1	0046	10.7
971	Charlton Trethewey	D	NCAA	19	PIT*	25′ #73	0.29	9.9	25%	3.3y @22.3	0029	10
1003	Kale Dach	F	WHL	19.5	PIT*	25′ #201	1.19	29.3	17%	3.6y @23.1	0044	9.4
1051	Quinn Beauchesne	D	OHL	19.5	PIT*	25′ #148	0.62	15.4	28%	4.6y @24.1	0029	8.8
1127	Parker von Richter	D	OHL	20.3	PIT*	26′ #111	0.71	17.5	20%	2.5y @22.8	0024	7.9
1358	Brady Peddle	D	LHJMQ	19.2	PIT*	25′ #91	0.31	7	17%	3.1y @22.3	0026	6
1432	Cooper Foster	F	OHL	21.2	PIT*	23′ #174	1	24.6	12%	1.8y @23	0021	5.2
1878	Mac Swanson	F	NCAA	20.6	PIT*	24′ #207	0.7	23.5	7%	2.4y @23	000	2.4

Who each prospect looks like

9. Liam Ruck88% NHL · 2y

Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP
Andre Burakovsky 13′#23	68 pk	771 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Mikhail Grigorenko 12′#12	31 pk	249 GP

10. Markus Ruck85% NHL · 2.1y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Andre Burakovsky 13′#23	68 pk	771 GP
Brock Boeser 15′#23	74 pk	629 GP

33. William Horcoff68% NHL · 2.4y

Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP

51. Bill Zonnon62% NHL · 2.5y

Nikita Scherbak 14′#26	never stuck	37 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28	never stuck	53 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Kerby Rychel 13′#19	never stuck	43 GP

58. Pierce Mbuyi65% NHL · 3.6y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Taylor Cammarata 13′#76	never stuck	0 GP

389. Harrison Brunicke55% NHL · 2.5y

Calen Addison 18′#53	38 pk	152 GP
Jordan Harris 18′#71	21 pk	172 GP
Brycen Martin 14′#74	never stuck	0 GP
Chad Krys 16′#45	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Montour 14′#55	75 pk	665 GP

669. Travis Hayes33% NHL · 3.8y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Aidan Muir 13′#113	never stuck	0 GP

832. Ryan Miller28% NHL · 3.7y

Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169	44 pk	477 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Gregory Chase 13′#188	never stuck	0 GP

900. Carter Sanderson23% NHL · 5y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

905. Jordan Charron20% NHL · 3.9y

Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP

971. Charlton Trethewey25% NHL · 3.3y

Gustav Olofsson 13′#46	never stuck	63 GP
Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85	44 pk	596 GP
Veeti Vainio 15′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Jaccob Slavin 12′#120	44 pk	784 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP

1003. Kale Dach17% NHL · 3.6y

Gregory Chase 13′#188	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Manuel Wiederer 16′#150	never stuck	0 GP
Zach Stepan 12′#112	never stuck	0 GP
Reid Duke 14′#169	never stuck	0 GP