Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
58	Pierce Mbuyi	F	OHL	18.3	PIT*	26′ #86	1.1	27.1	65%	3.6y @21.9	03368	32.9
669	Travis Hayes	F	OHL	19	PIT*	25′ #105	0.63	15.6	33%	3.8y @22.8	0046	14.1
905	Jordan Charron	F	OHL	19.2	PIT*	25′ #154	0.71	17.5	20%	3.9y @23.1	0046	10.7
1051	Quinn Beauchesne	D	OHL	19.5	PIT*	25′ #148	0.62	15.4	28%	4.6y @24.1	0029	8.8
1127	Parker von Richter	D	OHL	20.3	PIT*	26′ #111	0.71	17.5	20%	2.5y @22.8	0024	7.9
1432	Cooper Foster	F	OHL	21.2	PIT*	23′ #174	1	24.6	12%	1.8y @23	0021	5.2

Who each prospect looks like

58. Pierce Mbuyi65% NHL · 3.6y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Taylor Cammarata 13′#76	never stuck	0 GP

669. Travis Hayes33% NHL · 3.8y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Deblouw 12′#186	never stuck	0 GP
Aidan Muir 13′#113	never stuck	0 GP

905. Jordan Charron20% NHL · 3.9y

Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP

1051. Quinn Beauchesne28% NHL · 4.6y

MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Dawson Barteaux 18′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Gustav Bouramman 15′#201	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Carrick 12′#137	29 pk	242 GP

1127. Parker von Richter20% NHL · 2.5y

David Farrance 17′#92	never stuck	2 GP
Joey Keane 18′#88	never stuck	2 GP
Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Cole Hults 17′#134	never stuck	0 GP
Louie Belpedio 14′#80	never stuck	16 GP

1432. Cooper Foster12% NHL · 1.8y

Christopher Brown 14′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Damien Riat 16′#117	never stuck	0 GP
Nikita Korostelev 15′#185	never stuck	0 GP
Blaine Byron 13′#179	never stuck	0 GP
Jackson Houck 13′#94	never stuck	0 GP