Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
9	Liam Ruck★	F	WHL	18.5	PIT*	26′ #22	1.53	37.6	88%	2y @20.5	345791	56.7
10	Markus Ruck★	F	WHL	18.5	PIT*	26′ #39	1.59	39.1	85%	2.1y @20.6	345791	54.7
27	William Horcoff	F	NCAA	19.6	PIT	25′ #24	0.97	32.8	68%	2.4y @22	163571	36.1
44	Bill Zonnon	F	LHJMQ	19.9	PIT*	25′ #22	1.31	30.2	62%	2.5y @22.4	193562	33.7
50	Pierce Mbuyi	F	OHL	18.3	PIT*	26′ #86	1.1	27.1	65%	3.6y @21.9	03368	32.9
107	Tanner Howe	F	AHLPRO	20.7	PIT*	24′ #46	0.59	21.4	57%	1.7y @22.4	42565	28.8
153	Cruz Lucius	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	PIT	22′ #124	1.28	43	47%	1y @23.4	02965	27.5
177	Mikhail Ilyin	F	KHLPRO	21.5	PIT	23′ #142	0.65	40.9	57%	1.6y @23.1	62951	26.8
191	Zam Plante	F	NCAAPRO	22	PIT	22′ #150	1.25	42	57%	1.1y @23.1	02951	26.6
313	Brayden Yager	F	AHLPRO	21.6	PIT*	23′ #14	0.44	15.9	53%	1.3y @22.9	02053	21.3
324	Emil Jarventie	F	MESTISPRO	21.4	PIT*	23′ #217	0.81	19.9	38%	1.5y @22.9	01255	20.8
468	Ville Koivunen	F	AHLPRO	23.2	PIT	21′ #51	1.21	43.5	25%	0.7y @23.9	0064	16.1
541	Travis Hayes	F	OHL	19	PIT*	25′ #105	0.63	15.6	33%	3.8y @22.8	0046	14.1
645	Ryan Miller	F	WHL	19.3	PIT*	25′ #130	1.17	28.8	28%	3.7y @23	0044	11.7
672	Carter Sanderson	F	USHL	18.9	PIT*	25′ #169	0.63	12.4	23%	5y @23.9	0046	10.8
675	Jordan Charron	F	OHL	19.2	PIT*	25′ #154	0.71	17.5	20%	3.9y @23.1	0046	10.7
724	Kale Dach	F	WHL	19.5	PIT*	25′ #201	1.19	29.3	17%	3.6y @23.1	0044	9.4
737	Tristan Broz	F	AHLPRO	23.9	PIT*	21′ #58	0.83	29.9	17%	1y @24.9	0036	9
969	Luke Devlin	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	PIT*	22′ #182	0.25	8.4	7%	1.5y @23.9	0022	5.3
977	Cooper Foster	F	OHL	21.2	PIT*	23′ #174	1	24.6	12%	1.8y @23	0021	5.2
1287	Mac Swanson	F	NCAA	20.6	PIT*	24′ #207	0.7	23.5	7%	2.4y @23	000	2.4

Who each prospect looks like

9. Liam Ruck88% NHL · 2y

Joel Farabee 18′#14	57 pk	497 GP
Andre Burakovsky 13′#23	68 pk	771 GP
Curtis Lazar 13′#17	29 pk	617 GP
Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Mikhail Grigorenko 12′#12	31 pk	249 GP

10. Markus Ruck85% NHL · 2.1y

Nikolay Goldobin 14′#27	35 pk	125 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Andre Burakovsky 13′#23	68 pk	771 GP
Brock Boeser 15′#23	74 pk	629 GP

27. William Horcoff68% NHL · 2.4y

Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP
Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP

44. Bill Zonnon62% NHL · 2.5y

Nikita Scherbak 14′#26	never stuck	37 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28	never stuck	53 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Kerby Rychel 13′#19	never stuck	43 GP

50. Pierce Mbuyi65% NHL · 3.6y

Daniel Sprong 15′#46	57 pk	374 GP
Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
J.T. Compher 13′#35	52 pk	658 GP
Jake Guentzel 13′#77	91 pk	681 GP
Taylor Cammarata 13′#76	never stuck	0 GP

107. Tanner Howe57% NHL · 1.7y

Filip Hallander 18′#58	never stuck	16 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP
Adam Erne 13′#33	36 pk	424 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP

153. Cruz Lucius47% NHL · 1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pontus Holmberg 18′#156	29 pk	229 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Olle Lycksell 17′#168	never stuck	52 GP

177. Mikhail Ilyin57% NHL · 1.6y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP
Lucas Wallmark 14′#97	31 pk	187 GP

191. Zam Plante57% NHL · 1.1y

Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP

313. Brayden Yager53% NHL · 1.3y

Zach Senyshyn 15′#15	never stuck	16 GP
Radek Faksa 12′#13	34 pk	766 GP
Brendan Gaunce 12′#26	20 pk	214 GP
Jake DeBrusk 15′#14	64 pk	628 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP

324. Emil Jarventie38% NHL · 1.5y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Andrew Mangiapane 15′#166	55 pk	560 GP
Ondrej Kase 14′#205	55 pk	258 GP
Sammy Blais 14′#176	53 pk	278 GP

468. Ville Koivunen25% NHL · 0.7y

Boris Katchouk 16′#44	23 pk	179 GP
Jonathan Dahlen 16′#42	never stuck	61 GP
Taylor Raddysh 16′#58	39 pk	373 GP
Julius Nattinen 15′#59	never stuck	0 GP
Carter Verhaeghe 13′#82	78 pk	488 GP