Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Porter Martone★ | F | NCAA | 19.8 | PHI | 25′ #6 | 1.43 | 48 | 85% | 1.4y @21.2 | 356297 | 58.3 |
| 24 | Jack Nesbitt | F | OHL | 19.6 | PHI | 25′ #12 | 1.05 | 25.9 | 72% | 2.2y @21.8 | 273971 | 41 |
| 35 | Jett Luchanko | F | OHL | 20 | PHI | 24′ #13 | 1.22 | 30.1 | 65% | 2.4y @22.4 | 203465 | 35.5 |
| 255 | Jack Murtagh | F | NCAA | 19 | PHI* | 25′ #40 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 50% | 3.3y @22.3 | 01656 | 24.4 |
| 272 | Jack Berglund | F | SHLPRO | 20.4 | PHI* | 24′ #51 | 0.3 | 14.5 | 53% | 2.3y @22.7 | 01961 | 23.8 |
| 318 | Denver Barkey | F | AHLPRO | 21.3 | PHI | 23′ #95 | 0.62 | 22.2 | 50% | 1.8y @23.1 | 02453 | 22.3 |
| 341 | Maksim Sokolovskii | D | OHL | 18.1 | PHI* | 26′ #27 | 0.18 | 4.5 | 50% | 3.9y @22 | 01655 | 21.7 |
| 376 | Oliver Bonk | D | AHLPRO | 21.6 | PHI | 23′ #22 | 0.41 | 14.9 | 60% | 1.2y @22.8 | 82244 | 20.8 |
| 395 | Santeri Sulku | F | LIIGAPRO | 22.2 | PHI* | 22′ #197 | 0.67 | 29.5 | 40% | 1.5y @23.7 | 02148 | 20.1 |
| 400 | Cole Knuble | F | NCAAPRO | 22.1 | PHI* | 23′ #103 | 0.86 | 29 | 42% | 1.6y @23.7 | 02138 | 20.1 |
| 532 | Brek Liske | D | WHL | 18.6 | PHI* | 26′ #53 | 0.46 | 11.4 | 47% | 4y @22.6 | 01644 | 16.9 |
| 539 | Nathan Quinn | F | LHJMQ | 19 | PHI* | 25′ #164 | 1.26 | 28.9 | 33% | 4y @23 | 0051 | 16.8 |
| 652 | Alex Bump | F | AHLPRO | 22.7 | PHI | 22′ #133 | 0.72 | 26.1 | 25% | 1.2y @23.9 | 0038 | 14.4 |
| 719 | Noah Powell | F | NCAAPRO | 21.5 | PHI* | 24′ #148 | 0.35 | 11.9 | 20% | 1.1y @22.6 | 0055 | 13.2 |
| 852 | Alexis Gendron | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | PHI* | 22′ #220 | 0.45 | 16.3 | 20% | 1.4y @24 | 0036 | 11.4 |
| 945 | Carter Sotheran | D | WHL | 21.1 | PHI* | 23′ #135 | 1.05 | 25.8 | 28% | 2.7y @23.8 | 0036 | 10.2 |
| 987 | Heikki Ruohonen | F | NCAA | 20.2 | PHI* | 24′ #107 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 23% | 2.6y @22.8 | 0033 | 9.8 |
| 990 | David Jiříček | D | AHLPRO | 22.7 | PHI | — | 0.52 | 18.9 | 33% | 1.8y @24.5 | 0029 | 9.7 |
| 1038 | Ethan Samson | D | AHLPRO | 23 | PHI* | 21′ #174 | 0.44 | 15.9 | 28% | 1.9y @24.9 | 0027 | 8.9 |
| 1056 | Shane Vansaghi | F | NCAA | 19.9 | PHI* | 25′ #48 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 23% | 3.2y @23.1 | 0036 | 8.8 |
| 1070 | Alex Ciernik | F | ALLSVENSKANPRO | 21.9 | PHI* | 23′ #120 | 0.24 | 7.4 | 15% | 1.5y @23.4 | 0027 | 8.7 |
| 1093 | Matthew Gard | F | WHL | 19.4 | PHI* | 25′ #57 | 0.55 | 13.6 | 25% | 4.8y @24.2 | 0034 | 8.4 |
| 1100 | Matteo Mann | D | NCAAPRO | 21.6 | PHI* | 23′ #199 | 0.07 | 2.4 | 25% | 2.5y @24.1 | 0026 | 8.4 |
| 1158 | Devin Kaplan | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | PHI* | 22′ #69 | 0.27 | 9.6 | 17% | 1.3y @23.9 | 0025 | 7.5 |
| 1187 | Ryan MacPherson | F | NCAAPRO | 21.5 | PHI* | 23′ #172 | 0.13 | 4.5 | 12% | 1.7y @23.2 | 0025 | 7.3 |
| 1199 | Carter Amico | D | USHL | 19.4 | PHI* | 25′ #38 | 0.41 | 8 | 23% | 2.7y @22.1 | 0026 | 7.2 |
| 1500 | Ilya Pautov | F | MHL | 20.3 | PHI* | 24′ #173 | 0.77 | 11.3 | 12% | 2.7y @23 | 0020 | 4.7 |
| 1509 | Samu Tuomaala | F | AHLPRO | 23.6 | PHI* | 21′ #46 | 0.45 | 16.4 | 10% | 0.5y @24.1 | 0023 | 4.5 |
| 1556 | Owen McLaughlin | F | NCAAPRO | 23.4 | PHI* | 21′ #206 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 12% | 1.3y @24.7 | 0023 | 4.3 |
| 1769 | Ty Murchison | D | AHLPRO | 23.5 | PHI* | 21′ #158 | 0.21 | 7.5 | 10% | 2.6y @26.1 | 0015 | 3.1 |
| 1902 | Luke Vlooswyk | D | WHL | 19.6 | PHI* | 25′ #157 | 0.18 | 4.4 | 10% | 6.5y @26.1 | 000 | 2.1 |
| 1928 | Brian Zanetti | D | NLPRO | 23.4 | PHI* | 21′ #110 | 0.13 | 6.1 | 5% | 2.7y @26.1 | 000 | 1.8 |
Who each prospect looks like
7. Porter Martone85% NHL · 1.4y
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
| Robby Fabbri 14′#21 | 49 pk | 463 GP |
| Nick Suzuki 17′#13 | 101 pk | 537 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
24. Jack Nesbitt72% NHL · 2.2y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
| Jack Roslovic 15′#25 | 58 pk | 595 GP |
| Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9 | never stuck | 64 GP |
| Ryan Poehling 17′#25 | 39 pk | 358 GP |
35. Jett Luchanko65% NHL · 2.4y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28 | never stuck | 53 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
| Nikita Scherbak 14′#26 | never stuck | 37 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
255. Jack Murtagh50% NHL · 3.3y
| Alexander Volkov 17′#48 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| Alexandre Texier 17′#45 | 46 pk | 283 GP |
| Isac Lundeström 18′#23 | 30 pk | 405 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
272. Jack Berglund53% NHL · 2.3y
| Brock McGinn 12′#47 | 31 pk | 534 GP |
| Gabriel Fortier 18′#59 | never stuck | 11 GP |
| Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58 | 75 pk | 567 GP |
| Joe Veleno 18′#30 | 29 pk | 367 GP |
| Nick Baptiste 13′#69 | never stuck | 47 GP |
318. Denver Barkey50% NHL · 1.8y
| Michael Amadio 14′#90 | 35 pk | 522 GP |
| Sven Andrighetto 13′#86 | 36 pk | 216 GP |
| Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110 | 58 pk | 495 GP |
| Peter Cehlarik 13′#90 | never stuck | 40 GP |
| Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142 | 34 pk | 170 GP |
341. Maksim Sokolovskii50% NHL · 3.9y
| Brady Skjei 12′#28 | 48 pk | 773 GP |
| Filip Westerlund 17′#44 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Keaton Thompson 13′#87 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Steven Santini 13′#42 | 23 pk | 136 GP |
| Ian McCoshen 13′#31 | never stuck | 60 GP |
376. Oliver Bonk60% NHL · 1.2y
| Matthew Finn 12′#35 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lucas Johansen 16′#28 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23 | 23 pk | 225 GP |
| Ryan Merkley 18′#21 | never stuck | 39 GP |
| Travis Sanheim 14′#17 | 45 pk | 660 GP |
395. Santeri Sulku40% NHL · 1.5y
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Alan Quine 13′#166 | 24 pk | 106 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Riley Barber 12′#167 | never stuck | 16 GP |
400. Cole Knuble42% NHL · 1.6y
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Jacob Peterson 17′#132 | never stuck | 83 GP |
| Alan Quine 13′#166 | 24 pk | 106 GP |
532. Brek Liske47% NHL · 4y
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Brian Cooper 12′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brady Skjei 12′#28 | 48 pk | 773 GP |
| Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85 | 44 pk | 596 GP |
539. Nathan Quinn33% NHL · 4y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169 | 44 pk | 477 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Anthony Duclair 13′#80 | 64 pk | 669 GP |
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |