Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
272	Jack Berglund	F	SHLPRO	20.4	PHI*	24′ #51	0.3	14.5	53%	2.3y @22.7	01961	23.8
318	Denver Barkey	F	AHLPRO	21.3	PHI	23′ #95	0.62	22.2	50%	1.8y @23.1	02453	22.3
376	Oliver Bonk	D	AHLPRO	21.6	PHI	23′ #22	0.41	14.9	60%	1.2y @22.8	82244	20.8
395	Santeri Sulku	F	LIIGAPRO	22.2	PHI*	22′ #197	0.67	29.5	40%	1.5y @23.7	02148	20.1
400	Cole Knuble	F	NCAAPRO	22.1	PHI*	23′ #103	0.86	29	42%	1.6y @23.7	02138	20.1
652	Alex Bump	F	AHLPRO	22.7	PHI	22′ #133	0.72	26.1	25%	1.2y @23.9	0038	14.4
719	Noah Powell	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	PHI*	24′ #148	0.35	11.9	20%	1.1y @22.6	0055	13.2
852	Alexis Gendron	F	AHLPRO	22.6	PHI*	22′ #220	0.45	16.3	20%	1.4y @24	0036	11.4
990	David Jiříček	D	AHLPRO	22.7	PHI	—	0.52	18.9	33%	1.8y @24.5	0029	9.7
1038	Ethan Samson	D	AHLPRO	23	PHI*	21′ #174	0.44	15.9	28%	1.9y @24.9	0027	8.9
1070	Alex Ciernik	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	21.9	PHI*	23′ #120	0.24	7.4	15%	1.5y @23.4	0027	8.7
1100	Matteo Mann	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	PHI*	23′ #199	0.07	2.4	25%	2.5y @24.1	0026	8.4
1158	Devin Kaplan	F	AHLPRO	22.6	PHI*	22′ #69	0.27	9.6	17%	1.3y @23.9	0025	7.5
1187	Ryan MacPherson	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	PHI*	23′ #172	0.13	4.5	12%	1.7y @23.2	0025	7.3
1509	Samu Tuomaala	F	AHLPRO	23.6	PHI*	21′ #46	0.45	16.4	10%	0.5y @24.1	0023	4.5
1556	Owen McLaughlin	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	PHI*	21′ #206	0.5	16.8	12%	1.3y @24.7	0023	4.3
1769	Ty Murchison	D	AHLPRO	23.5	PHI*	21′ #158	0.21	7.5	10%	2.6y @26.1	0015	3.1
1928	Brian Zanetti	D	NLPRO	23.4	PHI*	21′ #110	0.13	6.1	5%	2.7y @26.1	000	1.8

Who each prospect looks like

272. Jack Berglund53% NHL · 2.3y

Brock McGinn 12′#47	31 pk	534 GP
Gabriel Fortier 18′#59	never stuck	11 GP
Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58	75 pk	567 GP
Joe Veleno 18′#30	29 pk	367 GP
Nick Baptiste 13′#69	never stuck	47 GP

318. Denver Barkey50% NHL · 1.8y

Michael Amadio 14′#90	35 pk	522 GP
Sven Andrighetto 13′#86	36 pk	216 GP
Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110	58 pk	495 GP
Peter Cehlarik 13′#90	never stuck	40 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP

376. Oliver Bonk60% NHL · 1.2y

Matthew Finn 12′#35	never stuck	0 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23	23 pk	225 GP
Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP
Travis Sanheim 14′#17	45 pk	660 GP

395. Santeri Sulku40% NHL · 1.5y

Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP

400. Cole Knuble42% NHL · 1.6y

Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

652. Alex Bump25% NHL · 1.2y

Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170	never stuck	6 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Dmytro Timashov 15′#125	never stuck	45 GP

719. Noah Powell20% NHL · 1.1y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP

852. Alexis Gendron20% NHL · 1.4y

Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Oskar Steen 16′#165	never stuck	60 GP

990. David Jiříček33% NHL · 1.8y

Markus Nutivaara 15′#189	31 pk	275 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Jake Middleton 14′#210	26 pk	381 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP

1038. Ethan Samson28% NHL · 1.9y

Luc Snuggerud 14′#141	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Ville Rasanen 17′#197	never stuck	0 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP

1070. Alex Ciernik15% NHL · 1.5y

Nathan Noel 16′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Jesse Gabrielle 15′#105	never stuck	0 GP
Conner Bleackley 16′#144	never stuck	0 GP
Damien Giroux 18′#155	never stuck	1 GP
Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP

1100. Matteo Mann25% NHL · 2.5y

Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP