Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Porter Martone★ | F | NCAA | 19.8 | PHI | 25′ #6 | 1.43 | 48 | 85% | 1.4y @21.2 | 356297 | 58.3 |
| 24 | Jack Nesbitt | F | OHL | 19.6 | PHI | 25′ #12 | 1.05 | 25.9 | 72% | 2.2y @21.8 | 273971 | 41 |
| 35 | Jett Luchanko | F | OHL | 20 | PHI | 24′ #13 | 1.22 | 30.1 | 65% | 2.4y @22.4 | 203465 | 35.5 |
| 255 | Jack Murtagh | F | NCAA | 19 | PHI* | 25′ #40 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 50% | 3.3y @22.3 | 01656 | 24.4 |
| 341 | Maksim Sokolovskii | D | OHL | 18.1 | PHI* | 26′ #27 | 0.18 | 4.5 | 50% | 3.9y @22 | 01655 | 21.7 |
| 532 | Brek Liske | D | WHL | 18.6 | PHI* | 26′ #53 | 0.46 | 11.4 | 47% | 4y @22.6 | 01644 | 16.9 |
| 539 | Nathan Quinn | F | LHJMQ | 19 | PHI* | 25′ #164 | 1.26 | 28.9 | 33% | 4y @23 | 0051 | 16.8 |
| 945 | Carter Sotheran | D | WHL | 21.1 | PHI* | 23′ #135 | 1.05 | 25.8 | 28% | 2.7y @23.8 | 0036 | 10.2 |
| 987 | Heikki Ruohonen | F | NCAA | 20.2 | PHI* | 24′ #107 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 23% | 2.6y @22.8 | 0033 | 9.8 |
| 1056 | Shane Vansaghi | F | NCAA | 19.9 | PHI* | 25′ #48 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 23% | 3.2y @23.1 | 0036 | 8.8 |
| 1093 | Matthew Gard | F | WHL | 19.4 | PHI* | 25′ #57 | 0.55 | 13.6 | 25% | 4.8y @24.2 | 0034 | 8.4 |
| 1199 | Carter Amico | D | USHL | 19.4 | PHI* | 25′ #38 | 0.41 | 8 | 23% | 2.7y @22.1 | 0026 | 7.2 |
| 1500 | Ilya Pautov | F | MHL | 20.3 | PHI* | 24′ #173 | 0.77 | 11.3 | 12% | 2.7y @23 | 0020 | 4.7 |
| 1902 | Luke Vlooswyk | D | WHL | 19.6 | PHI* | 25′ #157 | 0.18 | 4.4 | 10% | 6.5y @26.1 | 000 | 2.1 |
Who each prospect looks like
7. Porter Martone85% NHL · 1.4y
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
| Robby Fabbri 14′#21 | 49 pk | 463 GP |
| Nick Suzuki 17′#13 | 101 pk | 537 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
24. Jack Nesbitt72% NHL · 2.2y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
| Jack Roslovic 15′#25 | 58 pk | 595 GP |
| Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9 | never stuck | 64 GP |
| Ryan Poehling 17′#25 | 39 pk | 358 GP |
35. Jett Luchanko65% NHL · 2.4y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28 | never stuck | 53 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
| Nikita Scherbak 14′#26 | never stuck | 37 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
255. Jack Murtagh50% NHL · 3.3y
| Alexander Volkov 17′#48 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| Alexandre Texier 17′#45 | 46 pk | 283 GP |
| Isac Lundeström 18′#23 | 30 pk | 405 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
341. Maksim Sokolovskii50% NHL · 3.9y
| Brady Skjei 12′#28 | 48 pk | 773 GP |
| Filip Westerlund 17′#44 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Keaton Thompson 13′#87 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Steven Santini 13′#42 | 23 pk | 136 GP |
| Ian McCoshen 13′#31 | never stuck | 60 GP |
532. Brek Liske47% NHL · 4y
| Mark Friedman 14′#86 | never stuck | 93 GP |
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
| Brian Cooper 12′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Brady Skjei 12′#28 | 48 pk | 773 GP |
| Matt Grzelcyk 12′#85 | 44 pk | 596 GP |
539. Nathan Quinn33% NHL · 4y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169 | 44 pk | 477 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Anthony Duclair 13′#80 | 64 pk | 669 GP |
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
945. Carter Sotheran28% NHL · 2.7y
| Jake Walman 14′#82 | 52 pk | 320 GP |
| Sebastian Aho 17′#139 | 27 pk | 190 GP |
| Joseph Masonius 16′#181 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tyler Tucker 18′#200 | 20 pk | 159 GP |
| Mitchell Vande Sompel 15′#82 | never stuck | 0 GP |
987. Heikki Ruohonen23% NHL · 2.6y
| Oskar Lindblom 14′#138 | 49 pk | 337 GP |
| William Bitten 16′#70 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Logan Nelson 12′#133 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Christophe Lalancette 12′#109 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Tommy Novak 15′#85 | 69 pk | 285 GP |
1056. Shane Vansaghi23% NHL · 3.2y
| Alexey Lipanov 17′#76 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Linus Karlsson 18′#87 | 36 pk | 106 GP |
| Kasper Bjorkqvist 16′#61 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Max Zimmer 16′#104 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lane Zablocki 17′#79 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1093. Matthew Gard25% NHL · 4.8y
| Tyrell Goulbourne 13′#72 | never stuck | 11 GP |
| Alexander Volkov 17′#48 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Mike Winther 12′#54 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| Jack Badini 17′#91 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1199. Carter Amico23% NHL · 2.7y
| Ryan Lindgren 16′#49 | 29 pk | 481 GP |
| Patrick Sieloff 12′#42 | never stuck | 2 GP |
| Alexander Romanov 18′#38 | 26 pk | 369 GP |
| Roland McKeown 14′#50 | never stuck | 16 GP |
| Dylan Blujus 12′#40 | never stuck | 0 GP |