Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
7	Porter Martone★	F	NCAA	19.8	PHI	25′ #6	1.43	48	85%	1.4y @21.2	356297	58.3
255	Jack Murtagh	F	NCAA	19	PHI*	25′ #40	0.31	10.6	50%	3.3y @22.3	01656	24.4
400	Cole Knuble	F	NCAAPRO	22.1	PHI*	23′ #103	0.86	29	42%	1.6y @23.7	02138	20.1
719	Noah Powell	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	PHI*	24′ #148	0.35	11.9	20%	1.1y @22.6	0055	13.2
987	Heikki Ruohonen	F	NCAA	20.2	PHI*	24′ #107	0.68	22.8	23%	2.6y @22.8	0033	9.8
1056	Shane Vansaghi	F	NCAA	19.9	PHI*	25′ #48	0.31	10.6	23%	3.2y @23.1	0036	8.8
1100	Matteo Mann	D	NCAAPRO	21.6	PHI*	23′ #199	0.07	2.4	25%	2.5y @24.1	0026	8.4
1187	Ryan MacPherson	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	PHI*	23′ #172	0.13	4.5	12%	1.7y @23.2	0025	7.3
1556	Owen McLaughlin	F	NCAAPRO	23.4	PHI*	21′ #206	0.5	16.8	12%	1.3y @24.7	0023	4.3

Who each prospect looks like

7. Porter Martone85% NHL · 1.4y

Timo Meier 15′#9	81 pk	698 GP
Mitch Marner 15′#4	110 pk	738 GP
Robby Fabbri 14′#21	49 pk	463 GP
Nick Suzuki 17′#13	101 pk	537 GP
Luke Kunin 16′#15	41 pk	496 GP

255. Jack Murtagh50% NHL · 3.3y

Alexander Volkov 17′#48	never stuck	46 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Alexandre Texier 17′#45	46 pk	283 GP
Isac Lundeström 18′#23	30 pk	405 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

400. Cole Knuble42% NHL · 1.6y

Rourke Chartier 14′#149	never stuck	56 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP

719. Noah Powell20% NHL · 1.1y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP

987. Heikki Ruohonen23% NHL · 2.6y

Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
William Bitten 16′#70	never stuck	4 GP
Logan Nelson 12′#133	never stuck	0 GP
Christophe Lalancette 12′#109	never stuck	0 GP
Tommy Novak 15′#85	69 pk	285 GP

1056. Shane Vansaghi23% NHL · 3.2y

Alexey Lipanov 17′#76	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Karlsson 18′#87	36 pk	106 GP
Kasper Bjorkqvist 16′#61	never stuck	6 GP
Max Zimmer 16′#104	never stuck	0 GP
Lane Zablocki 17′#79	never stuck	0 GP

1100. Matteo Mann25% NHL · 2.5y

Simon Bourque 15′#177	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Ganly 13′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Lindholm 14′#144	never stuck	66 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP
Sebastian Walfridsson 17′#151	never stuck	0 GP

1187. Ryan MacPherson12% NHL · 1.7y

Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136	never stuck	0 GP
Anton Blidh 13′#180	never stuck	89 GP
Ben Johnson 12′#90	never stuck	0 GP
Steven Hodges 12′#84	never stuck	0 GP
Mattias Elfstrom 16′#197	never stuck	0 GP

1556. Owen McLaughlin12% NHL · 1.3y

Semyon Kizimov 18′#211	never stuck	0 GP
Mathias From 16′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Erik Nystrom 12′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17′#165	never stuck	4 GP
Gustav Possler 13′#130	never stuck	0 GP