Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 318 | Denver Barkey | F | AHLPRO | 21.3 | PHI | 23′ #95 | 0.62 | 22.2 | 50% | 1.8y @23.1 | 02453 | 22.3 |
| 376 | Oliver Bonk | D | AHLPRO | 21.6 | PHI | 23′ #22 | 0.41 | 14.9 | 60% | 1.2y @22.8 | 82244 | 20.8 |
| 652 | Alex Bump | F | AHLPRO | 22.7 | PHI | 22′ #133 | 0.72 | 26.1 | 25% | 1.2y @23.9 | 0038 | 14.4 |
| 852 | Alexis Gendron | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | PHI* | 22′ #220 | 0.45 | 16.3 | 20% | 1.4y @24 | 0036 | 11.4 |
| 990 | David Jiříček | D | AHLPRO | 22.7 | PHI | — | 0.52 | 18.9 | 33% | 1.8y @24.5 | 0029 | 9.7 |
| 1038 | Ethan Samson | D | AHLPRO | 23 | PHI* | 21′ #174 | 0.44 | 15.9 | 28% | 1.9y @24.9 | 0027 | 8.9 |
| 1158 | Devin Kaplan | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | PHI* | 22′ #69 | 0.27 | 9.6 | 17% | 1.3y @23.9 | 0025 | 7.5 |
| 1509 | Samu Tuomaala | F | AHLPRO | 23.6 | PHI* | 21′ #46 | 0.45 | 16.4 | 10% | 0.5y @24.1 | 0023 | 4.5 |
| 1769 | Ty Murchison | D | AHLPRO | 23.5 | PHI* | 21′ #158 | 0.21 | 7.5 | 10% | 2.6y @26.1 | 0015 | 3.1 |
Who each prospect looks like
318. Denver Barkey50% NHL · 1.8y
| Michael Amadio 14′#90 | 35 pk | 522 GP |
| Sven Andrighetto 13′#86 | 36 pk | 216 GP |
| Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110 | 58 pk | 495 GP |
| Peter Cehlarik 13′#90 | never stuck | 40 GP |
| Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142 | 34 pk | 170 GP |
376. Oliver Bonk60% NHL · 1.2y
| Matthew Finn 12′#35 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Lucas Johansen 16′#28 | never stuck | 9 GP |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23 | 23 pk | 225 GP |
| Ryan Merkley 18′#21 | never stuck | 39 GP |
| Travis Sanheim 14′#17 | 45 pk | 660 GP |
652. Alex Bump25% NHL · 1.2y
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Michael Bunting 14′#117 | 74 pk | 418 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Dmytro Timashov 15′#125 | never stuck | 45 GP |
852. Alexis Gendron20% NHL · 1.4y
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Joel Vermin 13′#186 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Cameron Hughes 15′#165 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Oskar Steen 16′#165 | never stuck | 60 GP |
990. David Jiříček33% NHL · 1.8y
| Markus Nutivaara 15′#189 | 31 pk | 275 GP |
| MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206 | 55 pk | 629 GP |
| Jake Middleton 14′#210 | 26 pk | 381 GP |
| Ville Rasanen 17′#197 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Luc Snuggerud 14′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1038. Ethan Samson28% NHL · 1.9y
| Luc Snuggerud 14′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206 | 55 pk | 629 GP |
| Linus Hogberg 16′#139 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Ville Rasanen 17′#197 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Filip Kral 18′#149 | never stuck | 2 GP |
1158. Devin Kaplan17% NHL · 1.3y
| J.C. Beaudin 15′#71 | never stuck | 22 GP |
| Jimmy Lodge 13′#84 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Grant Mismash 17′#61 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Jonas Rondbjerg 17′#65 | never stuck | 80 GP |
| Jonathan Gruden 18′#95 | never stuck | 16 GP |
1509. Samu Tuomaala10% NHL · 0.5y
| Andrei Altybarmakian 17′#70 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Justin Kirkland 14′#62 | never stuck | 50 GP |
| Marcus Davidsson 17′#37 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| William Bitten 16′#70 | never stuck | 4 GP |
| Cole Cassels 13′#85 | never stuck | 0 GP |
1769. Ty Murchison10% NHL · 2.6y
| Connor Clifton 13′#133 | 24 pk | 434 GP |
| Wyatte Wylie 18′#127 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Michael Brodzinski 13′#141 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Dysin Mayo 14′#133 | never stuck | 85 GP |
| Aleksi Makela 13′#182 | never stuck | 0 GP |