Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
Org:AllANAARIBOSBUFCARCBJCGYCHICOLDALDETEDMFLALAKMINMTLNJDNSHNYINYROTTPHIPITSEASJSSTLTBLTORUTAVANVGKWPGWSH
How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Porter Martone★ | F | NCAA | 19.8 | PHI | 25′ #6 | 1.43 | 48 | 85% | 1.4y @21.2 | 356297 | 58.3 |
| 21 | Jack Nesbitt | F | OHL | 19.6 | PHI | 25′ #12 | 1.05 | 25.9 | 72% | 2.2y @21.8 | 273971 | 41 |
| 29 | Jett Luchanko | F | OHL | 20 | PHI | 24′ #13 | 1.22 | 30.1 | 65% | 2.4y @22.4 | 203465 | 35.5 |
| 241 | Jack Murtagh | F | NCAA | 19 | PHI* | 25′ #40 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 50% | 3.3y @22.3 | 01656 | 24.4 |
| 257 | Jack Berglund | F | SHLPRO | 20.4 | PHI* | 24′ #51 | 0.3 | 14.5 | 53% | 2.3y @22.7 | 01961 | 23.8 |
| 285 | Denver Barkey | F | AHLPRO | 21.3 | PHI | 23′ #95 | 0.62 | 22.2 | 50% | 1.8y @23.1 | 02453 | 22.3 |
| 336 | Santeri Sulku | F | LIIGAPRO | 22.2 | PHI* | 22′ #197 | 0.67 | 29.5 | 40% | 1.5y @23.7 | 02148 | 20.1 |
| 340 | Cole Knuble | F | NCAAPRO | 22.1 | PHI* | 23′ #103 | 0.86 | 29 | 42% | 1.6y @23.7 | 02138 | 20.1 |
| 451 | Nathan Quinn | F | LHJMQ | 19 | PHI* | 25′ #164 | 1.26 | 28.9 | 33% | 4y @23 | 0051 | 16.8 |
| 529 | Alex Bump | F | AHLPRO | 22.7 | PHI | 22′ #133 | 0.72 | 26.1 | 25% | 1.2y @23.9 | 0038 | 14.4 |
| 573 | Noah Powell | F | NCAAPRO | 21.5 | PHI* | 24′ #148 | 0.35 | 11.9 | 20% | 1.1y @22.6 | 0055 | 13.2 |
| 656 | Alexis Gendron | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | PHI* | 22′ #220 | 0.45 | 16.3 | 20% | 1.4y @24 | 0036 | 11.4 |
| 716 | Heikki Ruohonen | F | NCAA | 20.2 | PHI* | 24′ #107 | 0.68 | 22.8 | 23% | 2.6y @22.8 | 0033 | 9.8 |
| 745 | Shane Vansaghi | F | NCAA | 19.9 | PHI* | 25′ #48 | 0.31 | 10.6 | 23% | 3.2y @23.1 | 0036 | 8.8 |
| 753 | Alex Ciernik | F | ALLSVENSKANPRO | 21.9 | PHI* | 23′ #120 | 0.24 | 7.4 | 15% | 1.5y @23.4 | 0027 | 8.7 |
| 762 | Matthew Gard | F | WHL | 19.4 | PHI* | 25′ #57 | 0.55 | 13.6 | 25% | 4.8y @24.2 | 0034 | 8.4 |
| 801 | Devin Kaplan | F | AHLPRO | 22.6 | PHI* | 22′ #69 | 0.27 | 9.6 | 17% | 1.3y @23.9 | 0025 | 7.5 |
| 825 | Ryan MacPherson | F | NCAAPRO | 21.5 | PHI* | 23′ #172 | 0.13 | 4.5 | 12% | 1.7y @23.2 | 0025 | 7.3 |
| 1024 | Ilya Pautov | F | MHL | 20.3 | PHI* | 24′ #173 | 0.77 | 11.3 | 12% | 2.7y @23 | 0020 | 4.7 |
| 1032 | Samu Tuomaala | F | AHLPRO | 23.6 | PHI* | 21′ #46 | 0.45 | 16.4 | 10% | 0.5y @24.1 | 0023 | 4.5 |
| 1064 | Owen McLaughlin | F | NCAAPRO | 23.4 | PHI* | 21′ #206 | 0.5 | 16.8 | 12% | 1.3y @24.7 | 0023 | 4.3 |
Who each prospect looks like
7. Porter Martone85% NHL · 1.4y
| Timo Meier 15′#9 | 81 pk | 698 GP |
| Mitch Marner 15′#4 | 110 pk | 738 GP |
| Robby Fabbri 14′#21 | 49 pk | 463 GP |
| Nick Suzuki 17′#13 | 101 pk | 537 GP |
| Luke Kunin 16′#15 | 41 pk | 496 GP |
21. Jack Nesbitt72% NHL · 2.2y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Michael McLeod 16′#12 | 35 pk | 287 GP |
| Jack Roslovic 15′#25 | 58 pk | 595 GP |
| Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9 | never stuck | 64 GP |
| Ryan Poehling 17′#25 | 39 pk | 358 GP |
29. Jett Luchanko65% NHL · 2.4y
| Jake DeBrusk 15′#14 | 64 pk | 628 GP |
| Joshua Ho-Sang 14′#28 | never stuck | 53 GP |
| Jesper Boqvist 17′#36 | 34 pk | 387 GP |
| Nikita Scherbak 14′#26 | never stuck | 37 GP |
| Jonatan Berggren 18′#33 | 36 pk | 205 GP |
241. Jack Murtagh50% NHL · 3.3y
| Alexander Volkov 17′#48 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63 | 46 pk | 329 GP |
| Alexandre Texier 17′#45 | 46 pk | 283 GP |
| Isac Lundeström 18′#23 | 30 pk | 405 GP |
| Shane Eiserman 14′#100 | never stuck | 0 GP |
257. Jack Berglund53% NHL · 2.3y
| Brock McGinn 12′#47 | 31 pk | 534 GP |
| Gabriel Fortier 18′#59 | never stuck | 11 GP |
| Tyler Bertuzzi 13′#58 | 75 pk | 567 GP |
| Joe Veleno 18′#30 | 29 pk | 367 GP |
| Nick Baptiste 13′#69 | never stuck | 47 GP |
285. Denver Barkey50% NHL · 1.8y
| Michael Amadio 14′#90 | 35 pk | 522 GP |
| Sven Andrighetto 13′#86 | 36 pk | 216 GP |
| Andreas Athanasiou 12′#110 | 58 pk | 495 GP |
| Peter Cehlarik 13′#90 | never stuck | 40 GP |
| Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142 | 34 pk | 170 GP |
336. Santeri Sulku40% NHL · 1.5y
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Alan Quine 13′#166 | 24 pk | 106 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Riley Barber 12′#167 | never stuck | 16 GP |
340. Cole Knuble42% NHL · 1.6y
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Connor Brown 12′#156 | 51 pk | 676 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Jacob Peterson 17′#132 | never stuck | 83 GP |
| Alan Quine 13′#166 | 24 pk | 106 GP |
451. Nathan Quinn33% NHL · 4y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169 | 44 pk | 477 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Anthony Duclair 13′#80 | 64 pk | 669 GP |
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
529. Alex Bump25% NHL · 1.2y
| Rourke Chartier 14′#149 | never stuck | 56 GP |
| Jonathan Davidsson 17′#170 | never stuck | 6 GP |
| Michael Bunting 14′#117 | 74 pk | 418 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Dmytro Timashov 15′#125 | never stuck | 45 GP |
573. Noah Powell20% NHL · 1.1y
| Cole Ully 13′#131 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Viktor Crus Rydberg 13′#136 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Austin Wagner 15′#99 | 28 pk | 178 GP |
| Marián Studenic 17′#143 | never stuck | 46 GP |
| Ben Jones 17′#189 | never stuck | 56 GP |
656. Alexis Gendron20% NHL · 1.4y
| Pavel Koltygin 17′#176 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Joel Vermin 13′#186 | never stuck | 24 GP |
| Cameron Hughes 15′#165 | never stuck | 5 GP |
| Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Oskar Steen 16′#165 | never stuck | 60 GP |