Prospect Rankings
Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.
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How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
| # | Player | Pos | League | Age | Org | Draft | P/GP | NHLe | P(NHL) | ETA | Upside band | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Jaxon Cover | F | OHL | 18.5 | OTT* | 26′ #32 | 0.78 | 19.1 | 65% | 3.3y @21.8 | 03468 | 33.7 |
| 226 | Adam Nemec | F | OHL | 18.8 | OTT* | 26′ #72 | 1.13 | 27.8 | 53% | 3.1y @21.9 | 02364 | 25.6 |
| 499 | Harris Pangretitsch | D | OHL | 18.4 | OTT* | 26′ #151 | 0.21 | 5.1 | 42% | 4.4y @22.8 | 01645 | 17.6 |
| 1206 | Matthew Andonovski | F | OHL | 21.4 | OTT* | 23′ #140 | 0.58 | 14.4 | 12% | 1.6y @23 | 0024 | 7.1 |
| 1404 | Gabriel Eliasson | D | OHL | 19.9 | OTT* | 24′ #39 | 0.13 | 3.2 | 20% | 2.9y @22.8 | 0026 | 5.4 |
Who each prospect looks like
49. Jaxon Cover65% NHL · 3.3y
| Isac Lundeström 18′#23 | 30 pk | 405 GP |
| Scott Laughton 12′#20 | 45 pk | 745 GP |
| J.T. Compher 13′#35 | 52 pk | 658 GP |
| Colin White 15′#21 | 47 pk | 323 GP |
| Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30 | 46 pk | 423 GP |
226. Adam Nemec53% NHL · 3.1y
| Jake Guentzel 13′#77 | 91 pk | 681 GP |
| Jaret Anderson-Dolan 17′#41 | 27 pk | 134 GP |
| Mason Shaw 17′#97 | never stuck | 82 GP |
| Daniel Sprong 15′#46 | 57 pk | 374 GP |
| William Lockwood 16′#64 | never stuck | 54 GP |
499. Harris Pangretitsch42% NHL · 4.4y
| Gage Ausmus 13′#151 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Connor Clifton 13′#133 | 24 pk | 434 GP |
| Joakim Ryan 12′#198 | 16 pk | 145 GP |
| Michael Downing 13′#97 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Will Butcher 13′#123 | 45 pk | 275 GP |
1206. Matthew Andonovski12% NHL · 1.6y
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147 | never stuck | 99 GP |
| Daniel Walcott 14′#140 | never stuck | 1 GP |
| Jacob Pivonka 18′#103 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Matej Pekar 18′#94 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Max Willman 14′#121 | never stuck | 68 GP |
1404. Gabriel Eliasson20% NHL · 2.9y
| Alexander Romanov 18′#38 | 26 pk | 369 GP |
| Luke Martin 17′#52 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Martin Fehérváry 18′#46 | 27 pk | 380 GP |
| Kasper Kotkansalo 17′#71 | never stuck | 0 GP |
| Adam Ginning 18′#50 | never stuck | 16 GP |