Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
235	Owen Beckner	F	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #204	0.77	25.8	53%	1.6y @23.1	72755	25.1
287	Logan Hensler	D	NCAA	19.8	OTT	25′ #23	0.52	17.5	62%	2.4y @22.2	02052	23.1
375	Blake Montgomery	F	NCAAPRO	21.3	OTT*	24′ #117	0.45	15	38%	1.4y @22.7	01258	20.9
756	Hoyt Stanley	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #108	0.44	14.8	33%	2y @23.5	0731	12.8
833	Cameron O'Neill	F	NCAAPRO	22.6	OTT*	22′ #143	0.45	15.2	25%	0.9y @23.5	0031	11.6
931	Nicholas Vantassell	F	NCAAPRO	22.3	OTT*	23′ #215	0.46	15.5	20%	1.2y @23.5	0027	10.5
997	Theo Wallberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.7	OTT*	22′ #168	0.38	12.7	30%	2.2y @24.9	0029	9.5
1144	Filip Nordberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	OTT*	22′ #64	0.18	6.2	28%	1.5y @24	0026	7.6
1466	Javon Moore	F	NCAA	20.7	OTT*	24′ #112	0.58	19.6	10%	2.3y @23	0012	5
1659	Ben Roger	D	NCAAPRO	23.8	OTT*	21′ #49	0.4	13.4	7%	now @23.3	0016	3.7
1766	Bruno Idzan	F	NCAA	20.6	OTT*	25′ #181	0.25	8.4	10%	4.3y @24.9	0012	3.2

Who each prospect looks like

235. Owen Beckner53% NHL · 1.6y

Sasha Chmelevski 17′#185	never stuck	24 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Riley Barber 12′#167	never stuck	16 GP
Connor Brown 12′#156	51 pk	676 GP
Rudolfs Balcers 15′#142	34 pk	170 GP

287. Logan Hensler62% NHL · 2.4y

Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP
Julius Bergman 14′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Thomas Chabot 15′#18	64 pk	569 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP

375. Blake Montgomery38% NHL · 1.4y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Wagner 15′#99	28 pk	178 GP
Connor Bunnaman 16′#109	never stuck	54 GP
Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP

756. Hoyt Stanley33% NHL · 2y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP

833. Cameron O'Neill25% NHL · 0.9y

Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Clark Bishop 14′#127	never stuck	53 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP

931. Nicholas Vantassell20% NHL · 1.2y

Ryan McGregor 17′#172	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP
Radel Fazleev 14′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Oskar Steen 16′#165	never stuck	60 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP

997. Theo Wallberg30% NHL · 2.2y

Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP

1144. Filip Nordberg28% NHL · 1.5y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Frederic Allard 16′#78	never stuck	4 GP
Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Bode Wilde 18′#41	never stuck	0 GP

1466. Javon Moore10% NHL · 2.3y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP
Blaine Byron 13′#179	never stuck	0 GP
Aarne Talvitie 17′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP

1659. Ben Roger7% NHL · 0y

Jacob Ragnarsson 18′#70	never stuck	0 GP
Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Kasper Kotkansalo 17′#71	never stuck	0 GP
Ty Emberson 18′#73	27 pk	178 GP
Jett Woo 18′#37	never stuck	0 GP

1766. Bruno Idzan10% NHL · 4.3y

Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Pontus Holmberg 18′#156	29 pk	229 GP
Miguel Fidler 14′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Karch Bachman 15′#132	never stuck	0 GP
Marcus Vela 15′#190	never stuck	0 GP