Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
126	Louis Felix Bourque	F	LHJMQ	18.1	OTT*	26′ #91	0.91	20.8	55%	3.8y @21.9	02968	28.6
1851	Eerik Wallenius	D	LHJMQ	20.6	OTT*	24′ #136	0.21	4.9	10%	4.2y @24.8	0011	2.6

Who each prospect looks like

126. Louis Felix Bourque55% NHL · 3.8y

Jarrod Maidens 12′#82	never stuck	0 GP
Alex Formenton 17′#47	33 pk	109 GP
Ivan Morozov 18′#61	never stuck	0 GP
Eeli Tolvanen 17′#30	46 pk	423 GP
Thomas Di Pauli 12′#100	never stuck	2 GP

1851. Eerik Wallenius10% NHL · 4.2y

Jacob Golden 17′#147	never stuck	0 GP
Jan Kostalek 13′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Markus Phillips 17′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Norell 13′#111	never stuck	0 GP
Matthew Berkovitz 14′#123	never stuck	0 GP