Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
#PlayerPosLeagueAgeOrgDraftP/GPNHLeP(NHL)ETAUpside bandScore
239Carter YakemchukDAHLPRO20.9OTT24′ #70.7426.762%1.9y @22.8
132652
24.9
855Jorian DonovanDAHLPRO22.4OTT*22′ #1360.3412.438%2.1y @24.5
0029
11.3
912Tyler BoucherFAHLPRO23.6OTT21′ #100.552030%0.6y @24.2
0034
10.6
913Jorian DonovanDAHLPRO22.3OTT*22′ #1360.3412.435%1.9y @24.2
0026
10.6
1418Tomas HamaraDAHLPRO22.4OTT*22′ #870.124.517%2.9y @25.3
0022
5.3
1470Tomas HamaraDAHLPRO23.4OTT*22′ #870.124.512%2.4y @25.8
0024
4.9
239. Carter Yakemchuk62% NHL · 1.9y
Julius Honka 14#14never stuck87 GP
Tony DeAngelo 14#1965 pk482 GP
Ryan Pulock 13#1542 pk636 GP
Haydn Fleury 14#726 pk345 GP
Olli Juolevi 16#5never stuck41 GP
855. Jorian Donovan38% NHL · 2.1y
Jakub Galvas 17#150never stuck6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15#143never stuck0 GP
Linus Hogberg 16#139never stuck5 GP
Tyler Tucker 18#20020 pk159 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16#98never stuck4 GP
912. Tyler Boucher30% NHL · 0.6y
Dominik Bokk 18#25never stuck0 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13#28never stuck1 GP
Marcus Davidsson 17#37never stuck0 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14#32never stuck98 GP
Pontus Aberg 12#3742 pk132 GP
913. Jorian Donovan35% NHL · 1.9y
Jakub Galvas 17#150never stuck6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15#143never stuck0 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16#110never stuck73 GP
Tyler Tucker 18#20020 pk159 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16#98never stuck4 GP
1418. Tomas Hamara17% NHL · 2.9y
Ryan Culkin 12#124never stuck0 GP
Dylan Labbe 13#107never stuck0 GP
Carl Dahlstrom 13#51never stuck67 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14#77never stuck0 GP
Jonathan-Ismael Diaby 13#64never stuck0 GP
1470. Tomas Hamara12% NHL · 2.4y
Jake Massie 15#156never stuck0 GP
Calle Sjalin 17#145never stuck0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12#124never stuck0 GP
Brandon Hickey 14#64never stuck0 GP
Petter Hansson 15#202never stuck0 GP