Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
14	Carter Yakemchuk	D	AHLPRO	20.9	OTT	24′ #7	0.74	26.7	62%	1.9y @22.8	132652	24.9
16	Logan Hensler	D	NCAA	19.8	OTT	25′ #23	0.52	17.5	62%	2.4y @22.2	02052	23.1
77	Harris Pangretitsch	D	OHL	18.4	OTT*	26′ #151	0.21	5.1	42%	4.4y @22.8	01645	17.6
95	Alexander Grunin	D	MHL	18.1	OTT*	26′ #183	0.34	5	40%	4.7y @22.8	01545	16.4
158	Hoyt Stanley	D	NCAAPRO	21.5	OTT*	23′ #108	0.44	14.8	33%	2y @23.5	0731	12.8
197	Jorian Donovan	D	AHLPRO	22.4	OTT*	22′ #136	0.34	12.4	38%	2.1y @24.5	0029	11.3
232	Jorian Donovan	D	AHLPRO	22.3	OTT*	22′ #136	0.34	12.4	35%	1.9y @24.2	0026	10.6
277	Theo Wallberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.7	OTT*	22′ #168	0.38	12.7	30%	2.2y @24.9	0029	9.5
355	Filip Nordberg	D	NCAAPRO	22.5	OTT*	22′ #64	0.18	6.2	28%	1.5y @24	0026	7.6
447	Gabriel Eliasson	D	OHL	19.9	OTT*	24′ #39	0.13	3.2	20%	2.9y @22.8	0026	5.4
449	Tomas Hamara	D	AHLPRO	22.4	OTT*	22′ #87	0.12	4.5	17%	2.9y @25.3	0022	5.3
463	Tomas Hamara	D	AHLPRO	23.4	OTT*	22′ #87	0.12	4.5	12%	2.4y @25.8	0024	4.9
523	Ben Roger	D	NCAAPRO	23.8	OTT*	21′ #49	0.4	13.4	7%	now @23.3	0016	3.7
580	Eerik Wallenius	D	LHJMQ	20.6	OTT*	24′ #136	0.21	4.9	10%	4.2y @24.8	0011	2.6

Who each prospect looks like

14. Carter Yakemchuk62% NHL · 1.9y

Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP
Tony DeAngelo 14′#19	65 pk	482 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Haydn Fleury 14′#7	26 pk	345 GP
Olli Juolevi 16′#5	never stuck	41 GP

16. Logan Hensler62% NHL · 2.4y

Julius Honka 14′#14	never stuck	87 GP
Julius Bergman 14′#46	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Thomas Chabot 15′#18	64 pk	569 GP
Vince Dunn 15′#56	65 pk	623 GP

77. Harris Pangretitsch42% NHL · 4.4y

Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Joakim Ryan 12′#198	16 pk	145 GP
Michael Downing 13′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP

95. Alexander Grunin40% NHL · 4.7y

Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Gage Ausmus 13′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Keaton Thompson 13′#87	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP
Tanner Faith 14′#139	never stuck	0 GP

158. Hoyt Stanley33% NHL · 2y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Declan Chisholm 18′#150	23 pk	125 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP

197. Jorian Donovan38% NHL · 2.1y

Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP

232. Jorian Donovan35% NHL · 1.9y

Jakub Galvas 17′#150	never stuck	6 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP

277. Theo Wallberg30% NHL · 2.2y

Linus Hogberg 16′#139	never stuck	5 GP
Filip Kral 18′#149	never stuck	2 GP
Connor Hobbs 15′#143	never stuck	0 GP
MacKenzie Weegar 13′#206	55 pk	629 GP
Tyler Tucker 18′#200	20 pk	159 GP

355. Filip Nordberg28% NHL · 1.5y

Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Jake Walman 14′#82	52 pk	320 GP
Frederic Allard 16′#78	never stuck	4 GP
Roland McKeown 14′#50	never stuck	16 GP
Bode Wilde 18′#41	never stuck	0 GP

447. Gabriel Eliasson20% NHL · 2.9y

Alexander Romanov 18′#38	26 pk	369 GP
Luke Martin 17′#52	never stuck	0 GP
Martin Fehérváry 18′#46	27 pk	380 GP
Kasper Kotkansalo 17′#71	never stuck	0 GP
Adam Ginning 18′#50	never stuck	16 GP

449. Tomas Hamara17% NHL · 2.9y

Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Dylan Labbe 13′#107	never stuck	0 GP
Carl Dahlstrom 13′#51	never stuck	67 GP
Blake Siebenaler 14′#77	never stuck	0 GP
Jonathan-Ismael Diaby 13′#64	never stuck	0 GP

463. Tomas Hamara12% NHL · 2.4y

Jake Massie 15′#156	never stuck	0 GP
Calle Sjalin 17′#145	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Culkin 12′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Brandon Hickey 14′#64	never stuck	0 GP
Petter Hansson 15′#202	never stuck	0 GP