Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
92	Gabe Perreault	F	AHLPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #23	0.85	30.7	65%	1.5y @22.8	63065	30.4
116	Tomas Chrenko	F	SLOVAKIAPRO	18.8	NYR*	26′ #81	0.7	20.2	60%	3.7y @22.5	93061	28.9
338	Alberts Smits	D	LIIGAPRO	18.7	NYR	26′ #5	0.34	15.1	62%	3.9y @22.6	112245	21.9
573	Malcolm Spence	F	NCAA	19.9	NYR*	25′ #43	0.62	21	35%	3.2y @23.1	0038	15.9
646	Adam Sýkora	F	AHLPRO	21.9	NYR	—	0.47	16.9	25%	1y @22.9	0055	14.6
655	Nathan Aspinall	F	OHL	20.4	NYR*	24′ #159	1.45	35.6	30%	3.2y @23.6	0047	14.3
674	Charlie Morrison	D	LHJMQ	18.9	NYR*	26′ #77	0.32	7.3	38%	3.9y @22.8	0844	13.9
689	Drew Fortescue	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #90	0.39	13.1	38%	1.4y @22.7	01132	13.7
690	Spencer Bowes	F	OHL	18.9	NYR*	26′ #102	0.63	15.4	30%	4.2y @23.1	0046	13.7
704	Ivan Patrikhayev	D	KHLPRO	20.5	NYR*	26′ #193	0.2	12.4	35%	2.2y @22.7	0731	13.4
717	Jaroslav Chmelar	F	AHLPRO	23.1	NYR	21′ #144	0.54	19.6	23%	1.6y @24.7	0041	13.2
728	Brody Lamb	F	NCAAPRO	23	NYR	21′ #104	0.86	28.8	25%	1.5y @24.5	0037	13
729	Bryce McConnell-Barker	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NYR*	22′ #97	0.36	13.1	30%	1.5y @23.7	0433	13
889	EJ Emery	D	NCAA	20.4	NYR	24′ #30	0.34	11.5	33%	3.3y @23.7	0031	10.9
1062	Dylan Roobroeck	F	AHLPRO	22.1	NYR*	23′ #178	0.36	13	15%	0.8y @22.9	0027	8.7
1142	Brennan Othmann	F	AHLPRO	23.6	NYR*	21′ #16	0.59	21.3	17%	1y @24.6	0030	7.6
1170	Jackson Dorrington	D	AHLPRO	22.4	NYR	22′ #176	0.16	5.7	23%	3.4y @25.8	0026	7.4
1217	Ryder Korczak	F	SLOVAKIAPRO	23.9	NYR*	21′ #75	0.85	24.3	15%	1.5y @25.4	0033	7
1226	Rico Gredig	F	NLPRO	21.5	NYR*	24′ #191	0.15	6.7	12%	1.7y @23.2	0025	7
1261	Andre Mondoux	D	OHL	19.4	NYR*	26′ #162	0.27	6.7	20%	3.9y @23.3	0026	6.8
1342	Raoul Boilard	F	LHJMQ	20.6	NYR*	24′ #119	0.64	14.7	12%	2.4y @23	0021	6.1
1427	Sean Barnhill	D	NCAA	19.6	NYR*	25′ #70	0.11	3.6	20%	3.6y @23.2	0025	5.3
1480	Brett Berard	F	AHLPRO	23.9	NYR*	20′ #134	0.54	19.4	10%	1.2y @25.1	0027	4.8
1607	Evan Passmore	D	OHL	19.7	NYR*	25′ #171	0.15	3.7	12%	3.6y @23.3	0017	4.1
1796	William Trudeau	D	AHLPRO	23.9	NYR	21′ #113	0.32	11.6	10%	2.2y @26.1	0015	3
1951	Darian Anderson	F	OHL	19.7	NYR*	26′ #163	0.75	18.4	5%	4.4y @24.1	000	1.6

Who each prospect looks like

92. Gabe Perreault65% NHL · 1.5y

Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

116. Tomas Chrenko60% NHL · 3.7y

Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Bogdan Yakimov 13′#83	never stuck	1 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Bo Groulx 18′#54	never stuck	78 GP

338. Alberts Smits62% NHL · 3.9y

Hampus Lindholm 12′#6	54 pk	829 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP

573. Malcolm Spence35% NHL · 3.2y

Marco Roy 13′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Ryan Hartman 13′#30	65 pk	725 GP

646. Adam Sýkora25% NHL · 1y

Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP

655. Nathan Aspinall30% NHL · 3.2y

Henri Ikonen 13′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Spacek 15′#108	never stuck	0 GP
Giorgio Estephan 15′#152	never stuck	0 GP
Francis Perron 14′#190	never stuck	0 GP
Tyler Soy 16′#205	never stuck	0 GP

674. Charlie Morrison38% NHL · 3.9y

Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP

689. Drew Fortescue38% NHL · 1.4y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP

690. Spencer Bowes30% NHL · 4.2y

Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13′#191	56 pk	357 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP
Alexandre Texier 17′#45	46 pk	283 GP

704. Ivan Patrikhayev35% NHL · 2.2y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP

717. Jaroslav Chmelar23% NHL · 1.6y

David Kase 15′#128	never stuck	7 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Ryan McGregor 17′#172	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP

728. Brody Lamb25% NHL · 1.5y

Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP