Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.
Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.
#PlayerPosLeagueAgeOrgDraftP/GPNHLeP(NHL)ETAUpside bandScore
655Nathan AspinallFOHL20.4NYR*24′ #1591.4535.630%3.2y @23.6
0047
14.3
690Spencer BowesFOHL18.9NYR*26′ #1020.6315.430%4.2y @23.1
0046
13.7
1261Andre MondouxDOHL19.4NYR*26′ #1620.276.720%3.9y @23.3
0026
6.8
1607Evan PassmoreDOHL19.7NYR*25′ #1710.153.712%3.6y @23.3
0017
4.1
1951Darian AndersonFOHL19.7NYR*26′ #1630.7518.45%4.4y @24.1
000
1.6
655. Nathan Aspinall30% NHL · 3.2y
Henri Ikonen 13#154never stuck0 GP
Michael Spacek 15#108never stuck0 GP
Giorgio Estephan 15#152never stuck0 GP
Francis Perron 14#190never stuck0 GP
Tyler Soy 16#205never stuck0 GP
690. Spencer Bowes30% NHL · 4.2y
Luke Johnson 13#134never stuck32 GP
Jonne Tammela 15#118never stuck0 GP
Dominik Kubalik 13#19156 pk357 GP
Shane Eiserman 14#100never stuck0 GP
Alexandre Texier 17#4546 pk283 GP
1261. Andre Mondoux20% NHL · 3.9y
Matt Benning 12#17526 pk465 GP
John Gilmour 13#198never stuck37 GP
Blake Hillman 16#173never stuck4 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13#140never stuck0 GP
Jake Massie 15#156never stuck0 GP
1607. Evan Passmore12% NHL · 3.6y
Adam Smith 16#198never stuck0 GP
Blake Hillman 16#173never stuck4 GP
Spencer Stastney 18#13125 pk117 GP
Clifford Watson 12#168never stuck0 GP
Jake Massie 15#156never stuck0 GP
1951. Darian Anderson5% NHL · 4.4y
Cristiano Digiacinto 14#170never stuck0 GP
Arnaud Durandeau 17#165never stuck4 GP
Matthew Bradley 15#131never stuck0 GP
Ryan McGregor 17#172never stuck0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12#114never stuck0 GP