Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
573	Malcolm Spence	F	NCAA	19.9	NYR*	25′ #43	0.62	21	35%	3.2y @23.1	0038	15.9
689	Drew Fortescue	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #90	0.39	13.1	38%	1.4y @22.7	01132	13.7
728	Brody Lamb	F	NCAAPRO	23	NYR*	21′ #104	0.86	28.8	25%	1.5y @24.5	0037	13
889	EJ Emery	D	NCAA	20.4	NYR	24′ #30	0.34	11.5	33%	3.3y @23.7	0031	10.9
1427	Sean Barnhill	D	NCAA	19.6	NYR*	25′ #70	0.11	3.6	20%	3.6y @23.2	0025	5.3

Who each prospect looks like

573. Malcolm Spence35% NHL · 3.2y

Marco Roy 13′#56	never stuck	0 GP
Vladislav Kamenev 14′#42	never stuck	66 GP
Adrian Kempe 14′#29	80 pk	711 GP
Jesse Ylonen 18′#35	35 pk	111 GP
Ryan Hartman 13′#30	65 pk	725 GP

689. Drew Fortescue38% NHL · 1.4y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP

728. Brody Lamb25% NHL · 1.5y

Aleksi Saarela 15′#89	never stuck	9 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Michael Bunting 14′#117	74 pk	418 GP
Adam Brooks 16′#92	never stuck	43 GP
Adam Mascherin 18′#100	never stuck	0 GP

889. EJ Emery33% NHL · 3.3y

Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Jett Woo 18′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Andrew Peeke 16′#34	29 pk	386 GP

1427. Sean Barnhill20% NHL · 3.6y

Zachary Lauzon 17′#51	never stuck	0 GP
Casey Staum 16′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP
Jacob Ragnarsson 18′#70	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Hall 16′#77	never stuck	0 GP