Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
674	Charlie Morrison	D	LHJMQ	18.9	NYR*	26′ #77	0.32	7.3	38%	3.9y @22.8	0844	13.9
1342	Raoul Boilard	F	LHJMQ	20.6	NYR*	24′ #119	0.64	14.7	12%	2.4y @23	0021	6.1

Who each prospect looks like

674. Charlie Morrison38% NHL · 3.9y

Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP

1342. Raoul Boilard12% NHL · 2.4y

Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Anton Zlobin 12′#173	never stuck	0 GP
Alan Quine 13′#166	24 pk	106 GP
Max Willman 14′#121	never stuck	68 GP