Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
92	Gabe Perreault	F	AHLPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #23	0.85	30.7	65%	1.5y @22.8	63065	30.4
646	Adam Sýkora	F	AHLPRO	21.9	NYR	—	0.47	16.9	25%	1y @22.9	0055	14.6
717	Jaroslav Chmelar	F	AHLPRO	23.1	NYR	21′ #144	0.54	19.6	23%	1.6y @24.7	0041	13.2
729	Bryce McConnell-Barker	F	AHLPRO	22.2	NYR*	22′ #97	0.36	13.1	30%	1.5y @23.7	0433	13
1062	Dylan Roobroeck	F	AHLPRO	22.1	NYR*	23′ #178	0.36	13	15%	0.8y @22.9	0027	8.7
1142	Brennan Othmann	F	AHLPRO	23.6	NYR*	21′ #16	0.59	21.3	17%	1y @24.6	0030	7.6
1480	Brett Berard	F	AHLPRO	23.9	NYR*	20′ #134	0.54	19.4	10%	1.2y @25.1	0027	4.8
1971	Kalle Vaisanen	F	AHLPRO	23.6	NYR*	21′ #106	0.08	2.8	7%	1.2y @24.8	000	1.4

Who each prospect looks like

92. Gabe Perreault65% NHL · 1.5y

Mitchell Stephens 15′#33	18 pk	123 GP
Tanner Pearson 12′#30	53 pk	778 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

646. Adam Sýkora25% NHL · 1y

Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Joel Vermin 13′#186	never stuck	24 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP

717. Jaroslav Chmelar23% NHL · 1.6y

David Kase 15′#128	never stuck	7 GP
Cameron Hughes 15′#165	never stuck	5 GP
Ryan McGregor 17′#172	never stuck	0 GP
Axel Jonsson-Fjallby 16′#147	never stuck	99 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP

729. Bryce McConnell-Barker30% NHL · 1.5y

Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
Gemel Smith 12′#104	never stuck	91 GP
Jimmy Lodge 13′#84	never stuck	0 GP
J.C. Beaudin 15′#71	never stuck	22 GP
Ryan Kujawinski 13′#73	never stuck	0 GP

1062. Dylan Roobroeck15% NHL · 0.8y

Gabriel Fontaine 16′#171	never stuck	0 GP
Ben Jones 17′#189	never stuck	56 GP
Pavel Koltygin 17′#176	never stuck	0 GP
Yegor Sharangovich 18′#141	59 pk	438 GP
Marián Studenic 17′#143	never stuck	46 GP

1142. Brennan Othmann17% NHL · 1y

Dominik Bokk 18′#25	never stuck	0 GP
Marcus Davidsson 17′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Pontus Aberg 12′#37	42 pk	132 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP

1480. Brett Berard10% NHL · 1.2y

Gustav Possler 13′#130	never stuck	0 GP
Erik Nystrom 12′#154	never stuck	0 GP
Mathias From 16′#143	never stuck	0 GP
Erik Karlsson 12′#99	never stuck	0 GP
Michael Eyssimont 16′#142	33 pk	269 GP

1971. Kalle Vaisanen7% NHL · 1.2y

Graham Black 12′#135	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Olsen 12′#160	never stuck	0 GP
Brent Pedersen 13′#126	never stuck	0 GP
Alexander Delnov 12′#114	never stuck	0 GP
Tyrell Goulbourne 13′#72	never stuck	11 GP