Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
36	Alberts Smits	D	LIIGAPRO	18.7	NYR	26′ #5	0.34	15.1	62%	3.9y @22.6	112245	21.9
130	Charlie Morrison	D	LHJMQ	18.9	NYR*	26′ #77	0.32	7.3	38%	3.9y @22.8	0844	13.9
137	Drew Fortescue	D	NCAAPRO	21.3	NYR	23′ #90	0.39	13.1	38%	1.4y @22.7	01132	13.7
144	Ivan Patrikhayev	D	KHLPRO	20.5	NYR*	26′ #193	0.2	12.4	35%	2.2y @22.7	0731	13.4
221	EJ Emery	D	NCAA	20.4	NYR	24′ #30	0.34	11.5	33%	3.3y @23.7	0031	10.9
387	Andre Mondoux	D	OHL	19.4	NYR*	26′ #162	0.27	6.7	20%	3.9y @23.3	0026	6.8
453	Sean Barnhill	D	NCAA	19.6	NYR*	25′ #70	0.11	3.6	20%	3.6y @23.2	0025	5.3
505	Evan Passmore	D	OHL	19.7	NYR*	25′ #171	0.15	3.7	12%	3.6y @23.3	0017	4.1

Who each prospect looks like

36. Alberts Smits62% NHL · 3.9y

Hampus Lindholm 12′#6	54 pk	829 GP
Urho Vaakanainen 17′#18	27 pk	221 GP
Jakub Zboril 15′#13	never stuck	76 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP

130. Charlie Morrison38% NHL · 3.9y

Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Brendan Guhle 15′#51	never stuck	65 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP

137. Drew Fortescue38% NHL · 1.4y

Brandon Crawley 17′#123	never stuck	0 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Cale Fleury 17′#87	11 pk	100 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Colton White 15′#97	14 pk	107 GP

144. Ivan Patrikhayev35% NHL · 2.2y

Maxime Lajoie 16′#133	never stuck	77 GP
Sami Niku 15′#198	never stuck	67 GP
Trevor Carrick 12′#115	never stuck	7 GP
Caleb Jones 15′#117	24 pk	255 GP
Tim Berni 18′#159	never stuck	59 GP

221. EJ Emery33% NHL · 3.3y

Jared McIsaac 18′#36	never stuck	0 GP
Timothy Liljegren 17′#17	34 pk	311 GP
Matthew Spencer 15′#44	never stuck	0 GP
Jett Woo 18′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Andrew Peeke 16′#34	29 pk	386 GP

387. Andre Mondoux20% NHL · 3.9y

Matt Benning 12′#175	26 pk	465 GP
John Gilmour 13′#198	never stuck	37 GP
Blake Hillman 16′#173	never stuck	4 GP
Teemu Kivihalme 13′#140	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Massie 15′#156	never stuck	0 GP

453. Sean Barnhill20% NHL · 3.6y

Zachary Lauzon 17′#51	never stuck	0 GP
Casey Staum 16′#124	never stuck	0 GP
Robin Salo 17′#46	never stuck	32 GP
Jacob Ragnarsson 18′#70	never stuck	0 GP
Connor Hall 16′#77	never stuck	0 GP

505. Evan Passmore12% NHL · 3.6y

Adam Smith 16′#198	never stuck	0 GP
Blake Hillman 16′#173	never stuck	4 GP
Spencer Stastney 18′#131	25 pk	117 GP
Clifford Watson 12′#168	never stuck	0 GP
Jake Massie 15′#156	never stuck	0 GP