Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
712	Jacob Kvasnicka	F	WHL	19	NYI*	25′ #202	1.31	32.2	25%	3.9y @22.9	0048	13.3
1324	Tomas Poletin	F	WHL	19.3	NYI*	25′ #106	0.81	20	17%	3.8y @23.1	0027	6.3

Who each prospect looks like

712. Jacob Kvasnicka25% NHL · 3.9y

Vinnie Hinostroza 12′#169	44 pk	477 GP
Anthony Duclair 13′#80	64 pk	669 GP
Mason Shaw 17′#97	never stuck	82 GP
Kevin Roy 12′#97	never stuck	28 GP
Gregory Chase 13′#188	never stuck	0 GP

1324. Tomas Poletin17% NHL · 3.8y

Brian Pinho 13′#174	never stuck	2 GP
Jacob McGrew 17′#159	never stuck	0 GP
Brad Morrison 15′#113	never stuck	0 GP
John McCarron 12′#153	never stuck	0 GP
Dominic Toninato 12′#126	20 pk	197 GP