Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
76	Kashawn Aitcheson	D	OHL	19.9	NYI*	25′ #17	1.25	30.8	75%	2.3y @22.2	142965	31.4
757	Vladimir Dravecky	D	OHL	18.7	NYI*	26′ #141	0.48	11.9	33%	4.3y @23	0044	12.7
815	Luca Romano	F	OHL	19.2	NYI*	25′ #74	0.6	14.8	28%	3.9y @23.1	0046	11.8
1482	Jesse Nurmi	F	OHL	21.5	NYI*	23′ #113	1.03	25.4	10%	1.5y @23	0020	4.8

Who each prospect looks like

76. Kashawn Aitcheson75% NHL · 2.3y

Tony DeAngelo 14′#19	65 pk	482 GP
Nils Lundkvist 18′#28	26 pk	235 GP
Juuso Välimäki 17′#16	36 pk	271 GP
Ryan Pulock 13′#15	42 pk	636 GP
Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP

757. Vladimir Dravecky33% NHL · 4.3y

Will Butcher 13′#123	45 pk	275 GP
Brian Cooper 12′#127	never stuck	0 GP
Mark Friedman 14′#86	never stuck	93 GP
Connor Clifton 13′#133	24 pk	434 GP
Michael Brodzinski 13′#141	never stuck	0 GP

815. Luca Romano28% NHL · 3.9y

Jonne Tammela 15′#118	never stuck	0 GP
Fabian Zetterlund 17′#63	46 pk	329 GP
Luke Johnson 13′#134	never stuck	32 GP
Joni Ikonen 17′#58	never stuck	0 GP
Shane Eiserman 14′#100	never stuck	0 GP

1482. Jesse Nurmi10% NHL · 1.5y

Damien Riat 16′#117	never stuck	0 GP
Jackson Houck 13′#94	never stuck	0 GP
Christopher Brown 14′#151	never stuck	0 GP
Austin Poganski 14′#110	never stuck	22 GP
Nikita Korostelev 15′#185	never stuck	0 GP