Prospect Rankings

Ranked by expected peak NHL production — not by junior points. Each prospect is matched to the players drafted 2012–2018 whose draft-stage profiles his most resembles, and carries what actually became of them: how many made it, when they arrived, and how good they got.

How this is built. Each prospect's draft-stage profile — league-adjusted scoring (NHLe), his age that season, goal share, pedigree — is matched against every player drafted 2012–2018, including the ones who never made it. What you see is what happened to his 40 closest matches: P(NHL) is the share who reached 100+ NHL games, ETA the median age they became regulars, and the band their 25th–90th percentile peak scoring pace. The rank itself is the mean peak pace across all matches, busts counted as zero — so a flashy profile whose comps washed out ranks below a steadier one whose comps stuck.

Two stages, matched separately: a junior is compared to other juniors; an AHL/pro prospect (the PRO tag) to players who were at the same stage — so a 22-year-old producing in the AHL isn't judged against 18-year-olds. Pool: 1324 drafted players (734 with a pro-stage season), 32% made the NHL — the base rate any prospect is measured against. Skaters only: there is no NHLe for a goalie.

#	Player	Pos	League	Age	Org	Draft	P/GP	NHLe	P(NHL)	ETA	Upside band	Score
14	Brady Martin★	F	OHL	19.4	NSH	25′ #5	1	24.6	78%	1.4y @20.8	294383	46.1
30	Cameron Reid	F	OHL	19.4	NSH*	25′ #21	0.98	24.2	70%	2.6y @22	193573	37.6
41	Egor Surin	F	KHLPRO	20.1	NSH	24′ #22	0.65	41	70%	2.5y @22.6	183469	34.4
86	Felix Nilsson	F	SHLPRO	21.2	NSH	23′ #43	0.77	37.2	70%	1.8y @23	203353	30.9
115	Ryker Lee	F	NCAA	19.8	NSH	25′ #26	0.86	28.8	55%	2.5y @22.3	153061	28.9
237	Joakim Kemell	F	AHLPRO	22.3	NSH*	22′ #17	0.6	21.8	60%	1y @23.3	02753	24.9
238	Aiden Fink	F	NCAAPRO	21.7	NSH	23′ #218	1.27	42.6	53%	1.4y @23.1	02751	24.9
407	Philip Hemmyr	F	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.2	NSH*	26′ #138	0.33	10.4	40%	3.4y @22.6	01258	20
422	Tanner Molendyk	D	AHLPRO	21.5	NSH*	23′ #24	0.38	13.8	55%	1.3y @22.8	01844	19.6
464	Kalan Lind	F	AHLPRO	21.6	NSH*	23′ #46	0.31	11.1	53%	1.4y @23	01637	18.6
530	Joey Willis	F	AHLPRO	21.4	NSH*	23′ #111	0.39	14.2	35%	1.4y @22.8	0958	16.9
544	Kasper Kulonummi	D	LIIGAPRO	22.5	NSH*	22′ #84	0.5	22.1	38%	1.6y @24.1	01344	16.6
562	Alex Huang	D	LHJMQ	19.1	NSH*	25′ #122	1.13	25.9	45%	2.9y @22	01151	16.2
644	Viggo Gustafsson	D	ALLSVENSKANPRO	19.9	NSH	24′ #77	0.2	6.2	47%	2.8y @22.7	01431	14.7
675	Benjamin Cossette Ayotte	D	LHJMQ	18.6	NSH*	26′ #179	0.61	14.1	35%	4.5y @23.1	0844	13.9
764	Adam Ingram	F	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #82	0.52	17.5	28%	0.7y @23.6	0034	12.6
794	Justin Graf	F	USHL	19.1	NSH*	26′ #118	1.06	20.8	23%	3.7y @22.8	0046	12.2
827	Ryan Ufko	D	AHLPRO	23.3	NSH*	21′ #115	0.85	30.5	28%	0.7y @24	0037	11.7
850	Sutter Muzzatti	F	NCAAPRO	23.1	NSH*	23′ #143	0.86	29.1	20%	1.3y @24.4	0037	11.4
964	Jacob Rombach	D	NCAA	19.4	NSH*	25′ #35	0.11	3.7	30%	2.7y @22.1	0027	10.1
991	Teddy Stiga	F	NCAA	20.4	NSH*	24′ #55	0.68	22.8	25%	2.6y @23	0030	9.7
996	Erik Påhlsson	F	NCAAPRO	22.4	NSH*	24′ #213	0.44	14.7	17%	0.8y @23.2	0027	9.6
1033	Graham Sward	D	NCAAPRO	22.9	NSH*	22′ #146	0.4	13.4	25%	2y @24.9	0027	9
1413	Miguel Marques	F	NCAA	20.5	NSH*	24′ #87	0.7	23.4	15%	3.4y @23.9	0025	5.4
1442	Anton Olsson	D	LIIGAPRO	23.6	NSH*	21′ #72	0.28	12.2	12%	1.7y @25.3	0017	5.1
1443	Jack Matier	D	AHLPRO	23.4	NSH*	21′ #124	0.25	9	15%	2.5y @25.9	0024	5.1
1455	Hiroki Gojsic	F	WHL	20.3	NSH*	24′ #94	0.75	18.3	10%	3.6y @23.9	0020	5
1467	Viktor Norringer	F	USHL	20	NSH*	24′ #127	1.02	20.1	10%	2y @22	0021	5
1471	Evan Smith	F	WHL	20.3	NSH*	15′ #205	0.51	12.7	12%	2.7y @23	0020	4.9
1837	Dylan MacKinnon	D	LHJMQ	21.6	NSH*	23′ #83	0.24	5.6	10%	3.2y @24.8	0011	2.7
1841	Austin Roest	F	AHLPRO	22.6	NSH*	23′ #175	0.17	6.2	5%	1.3y @23.9	0012	2.6

Who each prospect looks like

14. Brady Martin78% NHL · 1.4y

William Nylander 14′#8	100 pk	750 GP
Jake Virtanen 14′#6	43 pk	317 GP
Michael McLeod 16′#12	35 pk	287 GP
Vitali Kravtsov 18′#9	never stuck	64 GP
Bo Horvat 13′#9	90 pk	881 GP

30. Cameron Reid70% NHL · 2.6y

Josh Norris 17′#19	68 pk	283 GP
Jack Roslovic 15′#25	58 pk	595 GP
Janne Kuokkanen 16′#43	41 pk	119 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP
Michael McLeod 16′#12	35 pk	287 GP

41. Egor Surin70% NHL · 2.5y

Jakub Vrana 14′#13	62 pk	406 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP

86. Felix Nilsson70% NHL · 1.8y

Jesper Boqvist 17′#36	34 pk	387 GP
Jack Drury 18′#42	30 pk	268 GP
Tyler Benson 16′#32	never stuck	38 GP
Artturi Lehkonen 13′#55	65 pk	660 GP
Nick Sorensen 13′#45	never stuck	5 GP

115. Ryker Lee55% NHL · 2.5y

Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Ryan Poehling 17′#25	39 pk	358 GP
Marcus Davidsson 17′#37	never stuck	0 GP
Ryan Hartman 13′#30	65 pk	725 GP
Emile Poirier 13′#22	never stuck	8 GP

237. Joakim Kemell60% NHL · 1y

Morgan Klimchuk 13′#28	never stuck	1 GP
Jayce Hawryluk 14′#32	never stuck	98 GP
Rasmus Asplund 16′#33	32 pk	189 GP
Kole Lind 17′#33	never stuck	31 GP
Nicolas Kerdiles 12′#36	never stuck	3 GP

238. Aiden Fink53% NHL · 1.4y

Riley Damiani 18′#137	never stuck	7 GP
Oskar Lindblom 14′#138	49 pk	337 GP
Jacob Peterson 17′#132	never stuck	83 GP
Maxim Mamin 16′#175	never stuck	73 GP
Pavel Buchnevich 13′#75	87 pk	674 GP

407. Philip Hemmyr40% NHL · 3.4y

Maksim Sushko 17′#107	never stuck	2 GP
Taylor Leier 12′#117	never stuck	55 GP
Beck Malenstyn 16′#145	21 pk	262 GP
Matia Marcantuoni 12′#92	never stuck	0 GP
Gabriel Fortier 18′#59	never stuck	11 GP

422. Tanner Molendyk55% NHL · 1.3y

Ryan Merkley 18′#21	never stuck	39 GP
Lucas Johansen 16′#28	never stuck	9 GP
Pierre-Olivier Joseph 17′#23	23 pk	225 GP
Travis Dermott 15′#34	29 pk	348 GP
Josh Jacobs 14′#41	never stuck	3 GP

464. Kalan Lind53% NHL · 1.4y

Valentin Zykov 13′#37	never stuck	55 GP
Brendan Lemieux 14′#31	25 pk	307 GP
Scott Kosmachuk 12′#70	never stuck	8 GP
Chandler Stephenson 12′#77	66 pk	653 GP
Vaclav Karabacek 14′#49	never stuck	0 GP

530. Joey Willis35% NHL · 1.4y

Allan McShane 18′#97	never stuck	0 GP
Paul Cotter 18′#115	27 pk	296 GP
Cole Ully 13′#131	never stuck	0 GP
Mikhail Vorobyev 15′#104	never stuck	35 GP
Carsen Twarynski 16′#82	never stuck	22 GP

544. Kasper Kulonummi38% NHL · 1.6y

Reilly Walsh 17′#81	never stuck	1 GP
Tarmo Reunanen 16′#98	never stuck	4 GP
Lucas Carlsson 16′#110	never stuck	73 GP
Andrei Mironov 15′#101	never stuck	10 GP
Sean Durzi 18′#52	44 pk	302 GP